698 
FXUS63 KFSD 022315
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
515 PM CST Wed Jan 2 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CST Wed Jan 2 2019

A very quiet forecast continues to finish out the work week, with 
expectations of a mostly quiet forecast into early next week. Decent 
mixing has allowed temperatures to climb into the middle 30s far 
west to the upper 20s over snow covered areas this afternoon.

Tonight: Weak warm advection persists through the night, along with 
a persistent light westerly wind.  This will keep temperatures from 
falling significantly and hold most areas in the upper teens to 20s. 
 There are some questions about the potential for fog development.
However, feel that while possible, we may need a touch more 
melting and less dry air entrainment for fog to develop by 
Thursday morning. 

Thursday:  Temperatures will warm 5 to 15 degrees above where they 
reached on Wednesday as 925 mb temperatures soar overnight.  Mixing 
is a bit weaker than today, but should see rises well into the 30s 
and 40s in some areas.   Have trended warmer, but still may be too 
cool with highs. 

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 PM CST Wed Jan 2 2019

Thursday night:  Boundary layer moisture begins to increase 
considerably into Friday morning thanks to mixing and weak 
advection. Overnight lows may struggle to fall, and have bumped up
temperatures slightly. Also a bit more concerned with fog 
potential given weakening winds Friday morning and minor surface 
convergence. Will include patchy fog at this time.

Friday-Sunday:  We'll start off the weekend with continued warmth 
and dry conditions. Temperatures will once again climb further 
through the 30s and 40s on Friday.  Friday night into Saturday will 
be another time period to watch for low stratus and fog development, 
with some indications that overnight lows may not fall out of the 
30s.  Persistent warm advection and cloud cover will hold 
temperatures in the 30s and 40s through Sunday. Have trended the 
forecast highs towards the 75th percentile of guidance, with snow
cover and potential clouds limiting the heating to some degree. 

Monday-Wednesday: A broad, but progressive upper trough moves 
through the Central United States quickly on Monday.  GFS is by far 
the most aggressive model solution in developing light 
precipitation much further west than most other guidance Monday 
morning. Like the faster timing of the ECMWF and CMC, which brings
cloud cover, but keep the area dry.

Behind this system, no strong drop in temperatures can be expected, 
so maintained above normal readings into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 506 PM CST Wed Jan 2 2019

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Will need to
watch the band of low stratus across west central Minnesota for
expansion to the south, but right now expect this band to remain
just northeast of the forecast area.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dux
LONG TERM...Dux
AVIATION...