887 
FXUS65 KFGZ 021631
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
931 AM MST Wed Jan 2 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Mostly dry but very cold conditions will continue over
most of northern Arizona today, with snow showers remaining
likely across southern Apache County. Dry weather and a gradual
warming trend is forecast Thursday through Saturday, with more
unsettled weather forecast by Sunday and Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...The deep and cold upper low that has affected the region
since New Year's Eve is centered over southeast Arizona this
morning, on its way to near El Paso late this afternoon. The air
mass over the state is still cold, with highs today remaining
below freezing for all areas along/north of the Mogollon Rim with
30s/40s south of the rim. Northeast winds will remain breezy into
the afternoon for areas along and south of higher terrain, but
should diminish by late afternoon and evening. Moisture wrapping
around the north side of the low will bring some low clouds and
light snow at times southeast of a line from Payson to Window
Rock, with portions of the White Mtns receiving 1-3" of 
additional snow today. Forecasts have been adjusted this morning 
to raise snow chances in this area, otherwise the rest of the 
forecast is on track.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /335 AM MST/...An upper low axis extending from
NE to SW Arizona will pivot southward later today. This will lead
to deep northeasterly flow and locally breezy conditions over
northern Arizona. A few upslope snow showers with little to no
accumulation will be possible along and north of the Mogollon Rim
as a result. Furthermore, moisture wrapping around the center of
the low will lead to better chances for snow showers in the White
Mountains. Extreme southern Apache County will likely see new
snow amounts in the 1-3 inch range by this afternoon. The upper
low will then rotate into New Mexico tonight with dry conditions
developing statewide.

By Thursday, upper level ridging will begin to build into the
region. Dry conditions along with a warming trend is forecast
through Saturday.

The medium range models continue to prog an unsettled weather
pattern setting up Sunday-Monday next week. This system looks to
be relatively warmer than the New Year's Eve system, with snow
levels in the 5500-6500 ft. range. There's still quite a bit of
uncertainty with the timing and amounts this far out. Stay tuned.

Tuesday looks to be dry with the aforementioned low pressure
system exiting the region.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...ISOLD -SHSN south of KSOW will 
continue to produce areas of MVFR/IFR conditions through 00Z. N/NE 
sfc winds will be 10-20G20-30 kts through the daytime along and 
downwind of higher terrain features. Sfc winds decrease and after 
01Z Thurs. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Breezy northeast winds, snow showers across far 
eastern AZ and regionwide cold temperatures will continue today. 
Fair and warming conditions expected for Thursday.

Friday through Sunday...Dry conditions Friday and Saturday as 
daytime temperatures begin to trend up toward seasonal values. 
Chances for showers return Saturday evening and Sunday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ/TM
AVIATION...NL
FIRE WEATHER...NL


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff