549 FXUS64 KSJT 011001 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 401 AM CST Tue Jan 1 2019 .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday Afternoon) ...Freezing Rain Likely Wednesday... A cold front moved through the region early this morning, bringing gusty northeast winds and broken to overcast low clouds. Surface high pressure moving in, continued northerly winds bringing more cold air, and partly to mostly cloudy skies today will result in highs only reaching the low 30s in the Big Country, mid to upper 30s in the Concho Valley/Heartland, and upper 30s to low 40s along the I-10 corridor. An upper level low pressure system will move into Arizona tonight, while over our region southeasterly isentropic lift will likely bring areas of light precipitation, mainly after midnight, with an initial focus over our southeastern counties. Overnight lows tonight will be cold once again, down into the mid to upper 20s, with wind chills in the teens in many areas. The low will move east into New Mexico during the day Wednesday, with light precipitation continuing across the region. The low will then move into the Permian Basin late Wednesday night, with models showing additional light to potentially moderate precipitation over the northern half of the forecast area as the low moves east over the Big Country during the day Thursday. Due to surface temperatures near or below freezing with a warm layer aloft late Tuesday night and Wednesday, precipitation looks likely to fall mostly in the form of freezing rain or drizzle (although southern counties may warm up enough to see a regular cold rain transition during the day Wednesday), with potential ice accumulations of generally 0.05-0.10 inches. The moist layer deepens and cools enough on Thursday as the core of the low approaches and moves through, that snow will be a good possibility across the Big Country that day, and possibly down into the Concho Valley and Heartland as well. Issued Winter Weather Advisories for the entire forecast area (except Crockett County, as models show less precipitation in that county) which go into effect early Wednesday morning and continue through late Wednesday night (which is when the ice threat ends) for locations south of the Big Country. Meanwhile, the advisory continues for the Big Country through Thursday afternoon due to potential light snow accumulations of 1-2 inches (or possibly higher) on Thursday. Needless to say, it will continue to be cold, with highs Wednesday hovering around (or just above) freezing, lows Wednesday night in the mid to upper 20s, and highs Thursday only in the 40s (likely colder in the Big Country). .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through Monday) Any lingering winter precipitation will exit the far northern part of our area Thursday night, as the upper low moves east toward the Ark-La-Tex area. Quiet weather is expected for our area Friday and Saturday with generally clear skies and a warming trend in temperatures. A low amplitude upper ridge progged to shift east across Texas on Saturday. An upper shortwave trough is progged by the 00Z GFS to move from the southern Rockies east into the southern Plains and Texas on Monday. May have sufficient moisture return/availability with the approach and arrival of this shortwave to support a chance of showers Sunday night and Monday. Going with slight chance PoPs at this time given the uncertainty, as the 00Z ECMWF is farther north with the upper support and drier for our area. Temperatures look to be above normal during the first part of next week with dry conditions. Highs are expected to be in the lower to mid 60s on Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 32 26 32 28 / 5 20 50 50 San Angelo 38 26 35 27 / 0 20 50 30 Junction 44 29 38 28 / 0 40 70 30 Brownwood 37 27 34 28 / 0 20 60 40 Sweetwater 31 25 31 28 / 5 10 30 40 Ozona 39 27 34 27 / 0 20 40 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Wednesday to 6 PM CST Thursday for Callahan-Fisher-Haskell-Jones-Nolan-Shackelford-Taylor- Throckmorton. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday for Brown-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Irion-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch- Menard-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-Sterling-Sutton-Tom Green. && $$ SHORT TERM...SJH LONG TERM...19