002 FXUS66 KLOX 252358 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 358 PM PST Tue Dec 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS...25/100 PM. There will be dry northwest flow tonight into Wednesday, bringing clear skies and slightly warmer temperatures to the area. A trough of low pressure on Thursday will bring cooler temperatures and gusty northerly winds, especially in the mountains. Surface high pressure building east of the area may bring cold Santa Ana winds to Southwest California on Friday. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...25/1250 PM. Overall, 12Z models in good synoptic agreement through the short term period. At upper levels, persistent northerly flow will prevail through Friday. Near the surface, northwesterly flow will prevail through Friday. Forecast-wise, northerly flow is currently generating clouds across interior sections of SLO/SBA counties as well as the mountains of Ventura/LA counties. Expect these cloudy conditions to continue through this evening, before clouds dissipate overnight. There will likely continue to be a threat of some showers across north-facing slopes through this evening with snow levels around 4000 feet. So, winter weather conditions will remain likely and will keep the current WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY in effect through 1000 PM this evening. For later tonight through Friday, skies are expected to remain mostly clear. Other issue will be northwest to north winds across the area. Gust northerly winds will continue across the area through this evening and will keep current HIGH WIND WARNINGS and WIND ADVISORIES in effect through 1000 PM this evening. Winds should diminish late this evening with winds below advisory levels late tonight and Wednesday. For Thursday and Friday, it looks like northerly wind will be on the increase again with advisory level winds likely Thursday through Friday morning in the usual spots (Santa Ynez Range and Interstate 5 corridor). During the day on Friday, winds should shift a little more to the northeast and diminish. As for temperatures, this pattern will keep temperatures at seasonable levels through Friday. .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...25/1250 PM. Overall, 12Z models start out in good agreement then gradually diverge through the long term period. At upper levels, low will develop over the Arizona/Mexico border Saturday and Sunday. For Monday and Tuesday, this feature moves eastward although the ECMWF is noticeably faster with this progression than the GFS. Near the surface, varying degrees of offshore flow will prevail. Forecast-wise, main issue with the extended period will be winds. Through the period, there will be varying amounts of northeast winds across the area. At this time, it looks like the best chances for significant northeast winds will be Saturday and Sunday as upper level support lines up well with surface gradients. So, would not be surprised to see widespread advisory-level northeast winds across the area with the strongest winds in the usual spots across Ventura/LA counties. For Monday and Tuesday, will expect the winds to decrease in strength although the ECMWF would indicate a continuation of advisory level winds. Will have to see how the models resolve themselves for Monday and Tuesday. Otherwise, mostly clear skies should prevail through the period as offshore flow limits any stratus formation. Temperatures will only vary slightly from day-to-day, hovering around seasonal normals. && .AVIATION...25/2355Z. At 2330Z at KLAX...there was no marine inversion present. High confidence in the 00Z TAFs. Gusty NW to N winds are expected north of Point Conception with gusty west to NW winds further south, mainly during the evening hours. KLAX and KBUR...High confidence in the 00Z TAF with VFR conditions through the period. Gusty W winds expected through 03Z at KLAX and through 05Z at KBUR but timing may differ by 1-2 hours from taf times. && .MARINE...25/129 PM. For all the Outer Waters, high confidence in gale force winds through late tonight. Combined seas are forecast to build up to 15 to 18 ft through this evening then gradually subside through Wednesday. Periods will be rather short with choppy seas. There is a 50%-60% chance that at least Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and/or seas will persist Wednesday through Friday, with a 40% chance of gale force winds at times. Winds and seas should then remain below SCA levels for Saturday and Sunday. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in gale force winds through this afternoon, with a 30% chance that gales will continue through at least this evening or night otherwise there is a 70% chance of SCA winds through late tonight. There is a 40%-50% chance of SCA level winds at times Wednesday thru Friday. Winds and seas should then remain below SCA levels for Saturday and Sunday. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence in gale force winds through this evening. Very large, steep and dangerous waves are expected thru tonight. SCA level wind gusts should prevail for a short time late this evening then drop below SCA levels after midnight. Conditions should be below SCA levels on Wednesday and Wednesday night and again on Friday. There will be a 30%-40% chance of SCA level wind gusts at times Thursday and again Saturday and Sunday. && .BEACHES...25/134 PM. A large west-northwest swell continue to bring large surf to the Central Coast. Surf of 9 to 12 feet with peak sets up to 14 feet can be expected through this evening before slowly subsiding through Wednesday morning. This swell will continue to bring high surf conditions to beaches south of Point Conception through Wednesday morning. Surf of 5 to 8 feet with sets to 10 feet is expected on west-facing beaches, mainly in L.A. and Ventura Counties through this evening then slowly subside overnight into Wednesday morning. Along the Santa Barbara County south coast, local sets up to 6 feet are expected. Strong rip currents are expected on all beaches, with a risk of sneaker waves and beach erosion. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Wednesday for zones 34-35-40-41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Wind Warning in effect until 10 PM PST this evening for zones 39-52. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Wednesday morning for zone 39. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 10 PM PST this evening for zones 41-46-59-88-547. (See LAXNPWLOX). Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 10 PM PST this evening for zones 53-54. (See LAXWSWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Wednesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PST Wednesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && .HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (FRI-TUE). There is the potential for strong and gusty north to northeast winds Saturday and Sunday. && $$ PUBLIC...Thompson AVIATION...Smith MARINE...Sirard BEACHES...Sirard SYNOPSIS...B weather.gov/losangeles