474 
FXUS64 KTSA 192116
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
316 PM CST Wed Dec 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Main forecast concerns continue to be in the short term with the
rain potential through tomorrow morning and the increasing
northerly winds and associated increase in the rapid fire spread
potential during the day tomorrow. In addition, confidence is
increasing in some of the details regarding more widespread
shower and thunderstorm potential after Christmas.

Lighter showers are affecting portions of eastern Oklahoma early
this afternoon, with heavier showers poised to move into portions
of southeast Oklahoma later this afternoon and evening as the
upper trough stretched across the area slowly shifts eastward.
Areas east of Highway 75 will see the best chance of heavier
rainfall through the evening and into early tomorrow morning,
before all activity shifts east of the area by tomorrow afternoon.
With rainfall amounts likely to be very light across parts of
northeast and east central Oklahoma, the combination of the
increasing winds, that could gust near 40 mph at times, behind 
the system and lower surface dew points will lead to an uptick in 
the fire spread potential during the afternoon.

The overall weather pattern looks to remain fairly active, with
several disturbances affecting the region through the weekend and
well into next week. One such disturbance should just increase
cloud cover on Sunday, but subsequent disturbances will carry
increasingly higher rain chances, including one on Christmas Eve.
The strongest of these should affect the area next Wednesday, with
at least isolated thunderstorm potential looking likely to
accompany it. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   39  54  32  55 /  50   0   0   0 
FSM   43  54  34  52 /  80  20   0   0 
MLC   42  55  33  54 /  70   0   0   0 
BVO   39  55  30  54 /  40   0   0   0 
FYV   39  48  30  48 /  80  20   0   0 
BYV   40  47  32  47 /  80  30   0   0 
MKO   40  53  31  52 /  70   0   0   0 
MIO   38  51  30  50 /  70  10   0   0 
F10   40  54  33  55 /  70   0   0   0 
HHW   43  56  36  56 /  70  10   0   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


LONG TERM....22