052 FXUS61 KBGM 140942 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Binghamton NY 442 AM EST Fri Dec 14 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A moist southeast wind early this morning will produce areas of fog, and patchy drizzle and freezing drizzle over parts of northeast Pennsylvania and the western Catskills. A complex weather system will impact the region this weekend with periods of rain tonight through Sunday, especially from the southern tier of New York down into northeastern Pennsylvania. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... At 430 AM, local observations indicate areas of fog across parts of northeast Pennsylvania and the western Catskills especially in the higher terrain. So far no reports of drizzle/freezing drizzle and local radars show no returns. This is occurring due to a southeasterly flow with very shallow moisture. Will continue to mention the possibility of patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle through late morning. Most of the activity will be just drizzle as temperatures are generally above freezing and slowly rising already. Otherwise, conditions over the region will be dry today as short wave moving through southern Ontario this afternoon is too far north to impact the northern forecast area. System in the Gulf States is not expected to bring measurable rainfall to the southern forecast area until dark. It will be mild this afternoon with readings in the lower to middle 40s. Tonight/Saturday...Upper level low in the Gulf States is expected to lift into the Tennessee Valley by Saturday afternoon. A double structure surface low will lift northeast into the mid Atlantic region overnight then track off the coast on Saturday. Models continue to indicate the best moisture and lift will reside south of the New York border. Will continue to show likely/categorical POPs across northeast Pennsylvania and Sullivan County overnight with just chance POPs in the southern tier. The northern forecast area will remain dry. Overnight lows will range in the mid/upper 30s. As the surface lows move off the coast Saturday morning the chance for precipitation will decrease. High pressure over nearby southern Ontario will bring a northerly flow across the region bringing further drying. Will carry just chance/slight chance POPs for northeast Pennsylvania and dry elsewhere. Highs on Saturday will range in the lower to middle 40s across central New York and mid to upper 40s in northeast Pennsylvania. Total rainfall through this period may approach a half inch across the southern portions of Luzerne, Lackawanna, Wayne and Pike counties. This amount of rainfall will not cause any flooding issues. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... 2 am update... A closed upper level low over the Tennessee Valley will move to the coast Sunday. A surface low just northeast of the upper low will also move east. Moisture moving north over a west to east boundary will spread a second batch of rain into PA Saturday evening. This will push further north through the night and into Sunday to cover all of CNY too. The highest rain amounts of half an inch to an inch will be in the far south. Late Saturday night and Sunday colder air comes in with the upper level low which could change the rain to sleet or freezing rain. Lows range from the upper 20s from the northern Catskills to Syracuse to mid 30s in Scranton/WB. Sunday highs mostly in the upper 30s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... 2 am update... Forecast changed little. Continued unsettled period. Sunday night the lows to the south exit off the coast. This will pull in colder air but in addition a strong short wave drops southeast through the area late Monday into Monday night. Chances of snow increase with a cold front dropping through the area. highs in the 30s Monday drop to 20s to around 30 Tuesday. A northwest flow will keep snow showers going across CNY and the northern tier of NEPA. Wednesday high pressure stops the lake effect allowing highs to get back into the 30s. Thursday a strong cold front approaches from the west. Models not agreeing on timing. Highs again in the 30s. previous discussion... A bit of cooler air begins to drift in Sunday night so there could be a bit of light snow near the end of the weekend system. Cold front with much colder air drops in behind the system Monday with some upper moisture so some snow showers seem possible or likely into Tuesday in a northerly flow. High pressure builds in for Wednesday. Later in the day, upper heights build and a southwest flow develops at the surface bringing temperatures back above normal for mid week. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A southeast low level flow with abundant moisture will produce MVFR/Alternate Required ceilings across all terminals this morning except for KSYR which will remain VFR. At KBGM, conditions will be IFR with occasional IFR at KRME between 09Z- 12Z. Conditions will gradually improve late this morning/early afternoon to VFR as the flow becomes southwest. This evening a system approaching from the south will bring MVFR/Alternate Required restrictions back into the terminals. Southeast winds 5-10 knots with gusts at KITH becoming south/southwest later this morning at 8-10 knots with gusts to 18 knots at KBGM/KITH. Winds at KRME will remain southeast through the TAF period. This evening light south. Outlook... Saturday morning...Rain showers and likely restrictions as a system moves through the region. Saturday afternoon through Sunday...Showers and associated restrictions possible, especially southern tier down into Northeast PA. Lower confidence. Monday and Tuesday...Possible restrictions in snow showers, especially NY terminals. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RRM NEAR TERM...RRM SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...DGM/TAC AVIATION...RRM