210 FXUS61 KBGM 041932 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 232 PM EST Tue Dec 4 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Generally cool and dry conditions will persist over the region through Wednesday night. A system is expected to pass through Thursday into Thursday night with snow showers. This will be followed by another shot of colder air Friday, as well as lake effect snow mainly in Central New York. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 230 PM Update... Generally quiet dry and cool conditions will prevail during the near term period, with a surface ridge of high pressure dominating our weather. Low level flow this afternoon-early evening remains out of the north-northwest, but the air mass is very dry and flurries have dried up during the last few hours. Even the stratocumulus itself has been significantly eroding, allowing for sunshine to be seen from the Twin Tiers-Catskills southward. Little moisture remains trapped underneath the subsidence inversion of incoming high pressure, with depth that will be too shallow to support precipitation even as flow backs very light west-southwest tonight near Lake Ontario. The low chance of flurries/snow showers along the NY Thruway corridor has thus been removed from the forecast, and the sky will become either mostly clear or partly cloudy depending on amount of lingering lake moisture. Dry air and decent radiational cooling will result in lows of mid teens to near 20. Surface ridge of high pressure will remain in charge Wednesday, but a wave aloft will spread a batch of high-mid level clouds over the region. This will hold temperatures from getting warmer than upper 20s-lower 30s for highs, but the abundant dry air in the lower levels will prevent any precipitation. The surface ridge will lean coastward Wednesday night, with resulting west-southwest return flow stopping temperatures from dropping off too much; perhaps even creeping up a bit towards dawn after early lows of lower to mid 20s. Increasing moisture aloft, combined with a bit of lake contribution below, could allow a few flurries to show up in the pre-dawn hours of Thursday morning in the western Finger Lakes as well as north of the NY Thruway. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 330 am update... Main concerns in the short term are focused on the potential for snow showers along and behind a passing cold front Thursday and Friday...and much colder temperatures on Friday. Weak high pressure will be situated from the mid Atlantic region into New England early Thursday with a trough approaching from the west across the Great Lakes. The air mass will initially be on the cool side...potentially cold enough for a few lake effect snow showers. A broad sw flow will place the majority of the light snow showers north of the Finger Lakes and into the Tug Hill plateau...clipping far nrn Oneida county. However, the flow will become westerly as the trough approaches later in the afternoon Thursday. Frontal passage should be Thursday night with a quick 1-3 inches of snow possible. The air mass behind the front will be rather cold...with 850mb temps -13 to -18 deg C and at least a 6-12 hr period of steady/unidirectional nw winds. Model soundings indicate the potential for a deep (10k ft) boundary layer as well. All of these parameters point to a period of potentially significant lake effect snow into central NY Friday into the weekend. Still several days out, so will need to keep an eye on this time frame. The other stories Friday will be the much colder temperatures and the gusty nw winds. Highs on Friday will not get much above the mid 20s for a good portion of the area...and with winds gusting to 10 to 20 mph, it will feel even colder. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 330 am update... The lake effect snow showers will likely continue into Friday night before high pressure to the sw begins to build ewd...winds back to the w/sw and a much drier air mass advects in. A weak upper wave will slide ewd along the US-Canadian border on Saturday and clip the nrn counties with a light dusting of snow. Otherwise, the general consensus is to build/strengthen the surface high over the ern Great Lakes/Northeast region this weekend and into Monday as a strong coastal system over the Carolinas takes shape, but remains well to the south. This will leave much NY and ne PA under quiet weather with a gradual warming trend into early next week. Will still need to keep an eye on this developing system to the south, as the latest CMC model has it lifting to the north and impacting a large portion of the NE US. However, the forecast remains dry at this point. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 18Z Update... Fairly quiet conditions are expected this TAF period, as cold yet dry high pressure dominates. KSYR-KBGM-KITH will still hang on to a barely MVFR ceiling for a time this afternoon before joining the rest of the terminals at VFR. Some high thin clouds will advance into the region late tonight into Wednesday, but in the 2-4 kft agl layer only FEW or SCT is expected due to very limited moisture below a weak subsidence inversion. Northwest winds 7-10 knots, with a few gusts in mid teens, will slacken and become variable to very light southwest tonight into early Wednesday. Outlook... Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning...VFR. Thursday afternoon through Thursday night...Weak system passes with possible restrictions/light snow, especially NY terminals. Friday through Saturday night...Intermittent restrictions from lake effect snow showers for all NY terminals Friday; then mainly KSYR-KRME Friday night through Saturday night. Sunday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP NEAR TERM...MDP SHORT TERM...BJT LONG TERM...BJT AVIATION...MDP