270 FXUS63 KFGF 031610 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1010 AM CST Mon Dec 3 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 1009 AM CST Mon Dec 3 2018 Cloudy over the forecast area this morning. Though a band of clearing does extend in far northwestern/north central ND moving east toward Bottineau. This may move into parts of the far NW fcst area and give a bit of sun there...but confidence is not high. With the clouds and light winds, temperatures to change little the rest of the day. Will maintain some flurries into the aftn all but far NW fcst area. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 248 AM CST Mon Dec 3 2018 Surface high pressure over central ND will keep weak NW sfc winds in place today, while mostly cloudy to cloudy skies continue across the northern tier. Expect continuation of afternoon highs in the twenties...a few degrees cooler around Langdon...and overnight lows in the teens. Winds begin to shift southwesterly this afternoon as sfc high sinks off to the southeast, and Devils Lake region should see some 5 to 10 mph westerly winds overnight, keeping that region in the mid to upper teens with eastern zones generally in the 10 to 13 range. Forecast highs generally a blend of hi-res models that have been performing best based on local verification and a few degrees warmer than national blend solutions. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 248 AM CST Mon Dec 3 2018 Focus in the extended periods remains on light snow potential Wed, and period of colder temperatures Thu-Fri. Large scale pattern will generally be dominated by deep upper low over Hudson Bay, eventually transitioning to more of a split-flow pattern through next weekend. Wednesday snow chances: Shortwave is shown to track over our CWA out of Canada around the western periphery of the upper low, with a stalled frontal zone near the SD/ND border region and a strong cold front eventually pushing south Wed night. There has been a slight westward and southerly shift in track, but strong forcing is advertised to track across our CWA Wed afternoon. Strong lobe of 850- 700 MB frontogenesis is shown to track from the northwest to southeast Wed afternoon, with a brief period of elevated WAA. Models (including ECMWF/NAM) are showing QPF values around 0.05" across our central and western CWA, which is higher than inherited blend. Thermal profiles should support higher snow ratios and we may end up with an shot of around 1" of snow. There is uncertainty due to the fast moving clipper and less consistency recently on track, but signal is there and POPs/QPF/Snow were trended up during this forecast update. Beyond Wed afternoon/evening, dry conditions should persist. Pattern should support an increase in winds, but mixed layer winds currently aren't high enough for BLSN to be as much of a concern (could be some drifting). Regarding temperatures: There is still a strong cold signal for Thu/Fri as arctic air plows south into our CWA. GFS/GEM are the colder models, but ECMWF really isn't far off. With BL to 850 MB temps -18 to -21C, negative temperatures would be likely even if radiational conditions weren't ideal. GEFS mean for our central CWA is around -5F. I trended temperatures down during these periods as some 2m guidance may be running a bit high considering the amount of CAA. Rising heights towards next weekend and early next week should support some temperature recover, but they would likely be below freezing even if they were a touch above normal. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) Issued at 616 AM CST Mon Dec 3 2018 Predominantly MVFR cigs today with some light flurries possible, no restrictions to vsbys expected. Could see some sucker holes or short duration cig climbs into VFR category, but should be mainly MVFR throughout the 24-hour TAF period. Light winds turning westerly by tomorrow morning. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Riddle SHORT TERM...Speicher LONG TERM...DJR AVIATION...Speicher