146 FXUS63 KEAX 011134 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 534 AM CST Sat Dec 1 2018 .Discussion... Issued at 410 AM CST SAT DEC 1 2018 Early morning satellite imagery shows a rather messy pattern in place across the Nation. Of note for today, and the rest of the weekend, is a large trough currently digging into the Plains States, with the center of circulation beginning to shift northeast from north central Oklahoma. The associated surface low is already leading the upper level trough northeast into Kansas, where it will continue to slowly lift northeast as the parent synoptic level trough lifts towards the Great Lakes today. This will drag a warm front, currently draped across southern Missouri, a bit north today allowing for some slightly warmer temperatures to prevail across the region today. Early this morning...the digging trough to our west has been rather dynamic overnight, with a strong jet streak rounding the base of the trough helping intensify the associated low level nocturnal jet. Resulting moisture and warm air advection swept ahead of the trough generated an expected broad region of rain and thunderstorms, with severe thunderstorms producing damaging winds --at a minimum-- as the nocturnal jet got mixed down across southern Missouri, and a broad region of moderate --to at times heavy-- rain across central and northern Missouri. Rest of the early morning hours will see the severe threat continue to shift east as the whole weather system lifts northeast. Otherwise, the dry slot wrapping into the trough early this morning has brought a quick end to the rain on the back side of the system, but this is just the beginning of what may be a wet weekend. Today and Sunday...with the parent trough sweeping northeast, this will push the surface low and warm front northeast with it today, along with the focus for much of the rain. But, as the upper level trough swings across Missouri later today, expect the strong PV anomaly within the troughs core to help keep a chance of rain going across the region this afternoon and tonight simply due to steep mid- level lapse rates. The up side to this activity is that we will remain warm enough across eastern Kansas and northern Missouri to keep precipitation types as all rain through the daylight hours today, with temperatures cooling enough to induce a wintry mix of precipitation types across extreme northeast Kansas and far northwest Missouri late tonight into Sunday morning; generally along and north of a line from Kansas City to Unionville. For Sunday the parent trough will continue to shift northeast pulling a lot of cold air down across the northern and central Plains behind it. If we have any precipitation still falling by Sunday afternoon and evening, the cooling temperatures may induce some snowfall across the region Sunday into early Monday morning, though accumulations would not be that much. Coming work week...once the weekend system exits the Plains States Monday, a large trough feature will be left dominating the Plains. Thus, we expect cold dry weather to prevail through the middle of the work week. && .Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning) Issued at 534 AM CST SAT DEC 1 2018 A winter storm system will prevail across the terminals through the next 24 hours. The upper level feature driving this system will move into far northwest Missouri this afternoon. As this occurs, expect VCTS and/or VCSH as the core of the system shifts into Missouri. This should also keep CIGs wallowing around the LIFR to IFR range through much of the day. Might see some MVFR t periods this afternoon as much of the precipitation will be to our north in Iowa. Otherwise, the wind will be veering around through the day as the surface low associated with all this weather lifts northeast. In general, a low confidence forecast that will likely need many amendments. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ Discussion...Cutter Aviation...Cutter