631 FXUS61 KBGM 280515 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1215 AM EST Wed Nov 28 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A large upper level low will stall over the northeast United States through Wednesday. Snow will become heavy at times especially in the higher terrain of central NY with lighter snow showers and flurries elsewhere. Some valley locations will mix with rain at times. The heaviest snow will fall primarily southeast of Lake Ontario with up to a foot possible in the hills of central NY. A few inches are possible into the Southern Tier of New York as well, and lighter amounts in Northeast Pennsylvania through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 630 PM update...will continue winter storm warnings and advisories as is. We are receiving reports of generally 3 to 7 inches over most higher terrain areas in the warning area with up to 10 inches in Saquiot in Oneida County. As the upper level low continues to move toward VT overnight we feel there is a decent chance that snow will pick up in intensity. This storm is highly elevation dependent when it comes to snowfall. Many areas in the warnings won't see much snow at the lowest elevations. We hit the high elevations the hardest in our winter storm warning and our briefing. We are mostly concerned with Interstates 81 and 88 where high terrain areas have had significant problems in the past. Additionally, there are many state and county roads through the high country that will see warning level amounts and dangerous travel conditions. 400 PM update... Continuing winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories from earlier update. Upper level low will continue to move north to northwest toward VT tonight. The flow up through 500 mb will align from the northwest through the night into Wednesday morning. Water vapor channel shows deep synoptic moisture wrapping around this upper level low. This synoptic moisture will combine with lake effect moisture as 850 mb temperatures are around -6C with Lake Ontario water temperatures around 8C. This is a 14C difference. There is also a Georgian bay connection so we will continue to see wrap around snows down across most of central NY and far northeast Pa tonight/Wednesday. The hi resolution model consensus has around 10-12 inches of snow over the highlands in central NY where we have winter storm warnings in effect. We flanked most of this area with winter wx advisories. We lowered amounts some from the models and hit the high elevations the hardest in the winter storm warning. We have 5-10 inches of the higher terrain with 2 to 5 inches in the valleys of the warning areas. In advisory areas we have 3 to 7 inches. Farther south into the Southern Tier of NY and much of northeast Pa, most areas will see less than 1 inch with a few inches over the higher terrain. We are watching some banding forming through the Binghamton area up through Ithaca. If this persists, we will need to expand winter wx advisories into Tioga/Broome counties in NY and northern Wayne in PA. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The upper low will depart the northeast U.S Wednesday night and continue to drift east Thursday. The flow will remain northwest and with continued cold temperatures (850 mb temperatures around minus 8C) we will see additional lighter lake effect snows Wednesday night into Thursday. We expect all the snow showers to taper down by Thursday evening as the 850 mb ridge axis passes east. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A few lake-effect flurries and light snow showers linger into Thursday night, with otherwise mainly dry conditions before another wave moving in brings our next chances for rain and snow showers into Friday afternoon. A slight chance for a few lingering snow showers continues into Saturday before a strong low pressure system forming in the central US starts to head towards the lower Great Lakes. This will bring better chances for a rain/snow mix, and finally rain, Saturday afternoon and evening. Rain, occasionally mixing with snow, continues overnight into Sunday, with periods of rain throughout the day Sunday ahead of a cold front. It is looking increasingly less likely that we will see a great deal of sunshine Monday, with lingering rain and rain/snow showers behind the exiting system and a chance for some lake-enhancement. Also, another system will be on the way for Tuesday, bringing additional chances for rain and snow showers. As for temperatures, most days should see lows in the mid 20s to low 30s and highs in the mid 30s to low 40s. Sunday, however, will turn quite warm, starting off in the 30s with highs in the mid 40s and even up to the low/mid 50s across NE PA. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A large, vertically stacked low pressure system remains over northern New England keeping snow and flight restrictions through the TAF period. IFR will prevail at RME/SYR/ITH/BGM where proximity to the lake and/or elevation will keep lower ceilings and visibilities in place. At ELM/AVP, MVFR or VFR is more likely with lighter snow showers and periods of no weather. A tight pressure gradient will keep westerly winds 10-12 knots with gusts near 20 knots increasing during the daylight hours to 15-20 knots with gusts around 30 knots due to mixing. Outlook... Wednesday night through Thursday...Lake enhanced snow showers for KSYR-KRME-KITH-KBGM, but KELM-KAVP cannot be ruled out from brief flurries/restrictions. Lake effect diminishes Thursday. Thursday night through early Saturday...Primarily VFR. Late Saturday through Saturday night...System moves into the area with rain and restrictions becoming likely. Sunday...Restrictions likely in light rain. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ017- 018-036-037-044>046-057. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ009- 016-025. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJN NEAR TERM...DJN SHORT TERM...DJN LONG TERM...HLC AVIATION...DGM/RRM