453 FXUS64 KBMX 162117 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 317 PM CST Fri Nov 16 2018 .SHORT TERM... Through Tonight. Low and mid level cold advection has weakened this afternoon, giving way to weak warm/neutral advection. At the surface, high pressure is sliding across the area, keeping conditions dry and skies mostly clear. Highs have warmed into the upper 50s to lower 60s today. For tonight, winds will diminish, with temperatures falling into the 40s after sunset. Lows tonight will be warmer than the past couple nights, with mid 30s expected by Saturday morning. Patchy frost is possible. Cannot rule out localized fog near bodies of water, but with temperatures slightly warmer than last night, will hold off on mentioning it in the forecast. As a reminder, with a widespread freeze last night, we will not be issuing any additional frost advisories or freeze watches/warnings this season. We will resume issuing these products on March 15. Please see the Public Information Statement issued this morning at 604AM for additional details. 14 .LONG TERM... Saturday through Friday. A relatively inactive weather outlook is on deck for the long-term for central Alabama as most of the central/eastern CONUS will be under the influence of a stable continental airmass. The exception here is for Monday as split upper-level flow remains in place across the country with an elongated positively tilted trough entering the picture from the Midwest within the Polar jetstream. This moves southeastward and brings another high pressure system and preceding cold front along with it. Have mentioned a slight chance for light rain in the far northwest on Monday along and behind the frontal boundary as some increase in PWs/isentropic ascent develops near there, though synoptic forcing looks to be weak overall. Would need to see more indication of frontogenetic and/or geostrophic lift to increase PoPs much above 15% at this time. Thereafter, high pressure settles in across the area and provides more calm and stable weather for much of the week. There are some hints in guidance of a more robust trough/disturbance passing through towards the weekend, but don't have any forecast confidence for that at this point. Temperatures will remain pretty reasonable. A nice weekend featuring mid/upper 60s for highs, with a little cooler airmass within the next high pressure system next week bringing mid 50s/60s. 40/Sizemore && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF Discussion. High pressure over the area will limit cloud cover to sct to bkn cirrus through the period. Winds will be generally from the west this afternoon at 5-7kts, and diminish this evening. 14 && .FIRE WEATHER... Drier conditions will continue this weekend, and much of next week. However, relative humidity values each afternoon will remain above critical thresholds. Localized fog cannot be ruled out early Saturday morning, mainly near bodies of water. There are no fire weather concerns at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 33 63 38 63 41 / 0 0 0 10 10 Anniston 35 64 39 65 42 / 0 0 0 10 10 Birmingham 38 64 41 66 45 / 0 0 0 10 10 Tuscaloosa 35 66 40 66 45 / 0 0 0 10 10 Calera 35 64 39 65 43 / 0 0 0 10 10 Auburn 37 64 40 65 43 / 0 0 0 10 0 Montgomery 36 65 41 67 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 Troy 37 66 41 68 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$