657 FXUS63 KFGF 132330 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 530 PM CST Tue Nov 13 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 343 PM CST Tue Nov 13 2018 Latest satellite imagery shows mid to upper level clouds streaming southeastward into the Northern Plains from the Canadian prairies. As upper level ridging over the West Coast propagates eastward, greater thicknesses and warm air advection result in warmer air building into the region tonight through Wednesday night. Increasing temperatures aloft and cloud cover will limit overnight diurnal cooling, although temperatures may dip late tonight as clouds clear out west to east. While the approaching ridge and warm air advection should result in a significant warm up to near or slightly above normal temperatures, there is still considerable uncertainty in Wednesday's high temperatures due to the resident snowpack. Increased sunshine and breezy southerly flow will aid warming, but in order to counteract the radiative effects of snowpack, we would need to melt the majority of the snowpack in order to reach the temperatures suggested by the models, in the upper 30s to mid 40s. This much warming is more likely to occur for those locations with little to no snowpack than for those maintaining several inches or more. Thus expect a significant gradient to develop across the area tomorrow with warmer temperatures in the southern valley where snow melts and cooler in the north where snowpack remains. However even without significant melting, it will feel notably warmer as we should at least be able to realize highs around the freezing mark for the first time in a week. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 343 PM CST Tue Nov 13 2018 Warmer temps heading back into the region, highs on Thu will largely be determined by amount of snow melted on Wed. Pcpn chances increase for northern half of forecast area with clipper descending from Sask/Manitoba. Atmospheric profiles show column to be near freezing in pcpn area, so a rain/snow mix will likely be the p-type during the morning (isolated brief IP psble), with perhaps a few hours of aftn rain proximal to Highway 2 from Devils Lake to Bemidji. On Fri this system will be well east of the area with high pressure nudging down from the clipper's source region. Baroclinic zone should set up far enough south to keep most if not all pcpn (snow) along and south of Interstate 94. All the while plenty of cold air advection will limit high temps to near 20 well north to just below freezing near SD border. High pressure over the area Fri night and Sat will mean more Arctic overnight and then daytime temps for Sat. Right now the weekend looks to be free of pcpn with the next chance for anything marginally impactful maybe coming on Mon. Moderation to above freezing is likely on Tue and beyond. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 522 PM CST Tue Nov 13 2018 Mid and upper level clouds continue to move into the region from the Canadian prairie with ceilings between 5-7 kft. These mid level clouds are expected to gradually begin clearing from west to east overnight. This clearing may promote some fog formation during the pre-dawn hours across northeastern North Dakota. While confidence is not high enough to include the mention of fog in the TAF, the most likely site to see any fog is KDVL between 09 to 12 UTC this morning. Partly cloudy conditions will prevail for Wednesday with increasing winds during the day. Wind gusts between 20 to 25 mph can't be ruled out during the mid/late afternoon hours. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BP LONG TERM...WJB AVIATION...AM