040 FXUS66 KLOX 130453 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 853 PM PST Mon Nov 12 2018 .SYNOPSIS...12/140 PM. Moderate to locally strong Santa Ana winds will continue through Tuesday. Lighter offshore winds are expected Wednesday and Thursday. A switch to onshore and a return of the coastal marine layer will be possible Friday into next weekend. A weather pattern change is expected during Thanksgiving week with the possibilities for rain. && .SHORT TERM (MON-THU)...12/852 PM. Gusty winds continued across the region this evening, with winds still gusting to between 45 and 55 mph in the mountains of L.A. and VTU Counties including the Santa Monica Range and to between 30 and 40 mph in the windier valley and coastal locations of L.A. and VTU Counties. Pressure gradients are still greater than 6 mb offshore between KLAX and KDAG this evening, and are forecast to increase to between 7 and 8 mb offshore shortly after daybreak on Tue. While upper support in the form of 850 mb winds and subsidence is not quite as good on Tue, the increase offshore gradients will probably make up for it. Therefore, expect another very windy period very late tonight and Tuesday morning, during the diurnal peak of the Santa Ana winds. High Wind Warnings remain in effect for the mountains of L.A. and VTU Counties including the Santa Monica Range through Tue afternoon, with wind advisories in coastal and valley areas. Peak gusts should reach 60 to 65 mph in the mountains, and 40 to 50 mph in the valleys Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon. It was exceedingly dry across the region once again this evening, with relative humidity values between 3 and 8 percent in many valley and mountain areas. Humidity recovery will be scant at best overnight, then relative humidites on Tue should be similar to those day. Winds should diminish by late Tue afternoon as pressure gradients weaken. Gradients will probably remain strongly enough offshore to produce Wind Advisory level winds at least in the mountains and many valley areas of L.A. and VTU Counties Tue night and Wed morning, but winds should be considerably weaker just about everywhere. With gusty winds and very dry conditions persisting, Red Flag Warnings were extended through late Wed afternoon for all of VTU County, the L.A. County mountains including the Santa Monica Range, and the San Fernando and Santa Clarita Valleys. They are in effect until late Tue afternoon in the San Gabriel Valley and the L.A. County Coast from Malibu to the Hollywood Hills. ***From Previous Discussion*** Even Thursday there's still enough offshore gradient and winds aloft to generate locally gusty winds at the surface but definitely below advisory levels by that point. There will be small warm up the next few days with high pressure aloft pushing out the remaining cool air from the previous trough. Overnight temps will continue to be quite chilly in wind protected locations such as interior SLO, the Antelope Valley, and in and around Ojai. .LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...12/157 PM. Cooling to begin most areas Friday as a trough replaces the ridge aloft and gradients turn weakly onshore. Much cooler air will move in as well and drop daytime temps 5-10 degrees by the weekend. Will likely see some marine layer stratus reforming as early as Saturday morning but no later than Monday. Winds will be much lighter during the period. By Monday afternoon and night models showing an upper low developing just west of the California coast with some moisture with it. Very low confidence though as it's bumping into a ridge of high pressure stretching from the Pac NW southeast through AZ so expect quite a few variations of this solution the next several days. For now will just continue the cooling trend but keep the forecast dry. && .AVIATION...13/0056Z. At 0030z at KLAX, there was no marine inversion. Overall...High confidence in the TAFs. Areas of smoke across the region may cause MVFR VSBYs at times, particularly from KOXR through KLAX. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. KLAX... High confidence in the TAF. VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. There is a 20% chance of MVFR vsbys in smoke between 03Z and 14Z. There is a 20% chance of east winds greater than eight knots 13/14z- 18z. KBUR... High confidence in the TAF. VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. There is a 30% chance of LLWS. && .MARINE...12/824 PM. For the outer waters...There will be Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level gusts to 25 to 30 knots later tonight through Tuesday in the southern outer waters. Otherwise and elsewhere, the winds will remain below SCA levels through Thursday. For the inner waters north of Point Conception...conditions will remain below SCA levels through Thursday. For the inner waters south of Point Conception...there will be SCA level winds tonight and Tuesday, especially near shore south of Rincon Point and below passes and canyons. This includes the waters out to Catalina Island where there may be hazardous swells and gusty winds in and around Avalon Harbor. && .FIRE WEATHER...12/338 PM. Moderate to strong Santa Ana winds combined with single digit humidities will continue to bring VERY CRITICAL fire weather conditions across much of Los Angeles and Ventura counties through Tuesday. During this time, northeast winds gusting between 40 and 60 mph will be common across wind favored areas. By Tuesday night and Wednesday, the offshore winds are expected to diminish but will still see gusts in the 25 to 40 mph range. These expected offshore winds in combination with persistent single digit humidities has resulted in the extension of the Red Flag Warning through 5 pm Wednesday for Ventura County, the Los Angeles county mountains, Santa Monica mountains, Santa Clarita Valley, and San Fernando Valley. Winds are expected to be weaker across the Los Angeles coast and San Gabriel Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday, so Red Flag Warnings will remain in effect through 5 pm Tuesday for these areas at this time. LAX-Daggett gradient peaked at -6.8 mb this morning, and is expected to peak above -7 mb on Tuesday morning. A light offshore wind influence will maintain dry conditions across interior sections Thursday into Friday, maintaining elevated fire weather conditions. Fire weather conditions through Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties will be elevated through this period with plenty of dry air along with pockets of gusty east winds expected. If fire ignition occurs, conditions will be favorable for very rapid fire spread and extreme fire behavior including long range spotting, especially today into Tuesday. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 5 PM PST Tuesday for zones 40-41-44-45-88-547. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Warning in effect until 5 PM PST Tuesday for zones 46-53-54. (See LAXNPWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until 5 PM PST Wednesday for zones 240-244>246-253-254-288-547. (See LAXRFWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until 5 PM PST Tuesday for zones 241-548. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Tuesday for zones 650-655-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && .HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (THU-MON). No significant hazards expected. && $$ PUBLIC...MW/DB AVIATION...DB MARINE...Sirard FIRE...Gomberg SYNOPSIS...B weather.gov/losangeles