790 FXUS61 KBGM 080652 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 152 AM EST Thu Nov 8 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Passing high pressure keeps things quiet today and tonight, though with lake effect clouds at times from the Twin Tiers northward, and perhaps even a sprinkle or flurry east of Lake Ontario. A wet low pressure system will bring rain mixed with wet snow at higher elevations Friday, followed by a cold weekend including lake effect snow in parts of Central New York. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 145 AM Update... Fairly benign weather is expected in the near term, courtesy of passing high pressure, ahead of a system that will quickly arrive after tonight. A surface ridge of high pressure currently extends from the Midwest into Pennsylvania. Prior shallow cool air advection to the north of the axis has been enough to produce a deck of lake effect clouds within the lowest few thousand feet, though its progress is slowing as it heads into the ridge. Cloud forecast is pretty tough, but it appears the deck should halt around the Twin Tiers/Northwestern Catskills. For the Wyoming Valley- Poconos-Southern Catskills, the moisture layer should be thin enough to allow a larger proportion of sun to be managed today. To the north though, stratocumulus will be tougher to erode with west-northwest winds, though eventually late afternoon- early evening should feature a better breakup. As if often the case, clouds will be particularly stubborn along and north of the New York Thruway due to feed of moisture off of Lake Ontario. Lake effect sprinkles/flurries may even occur at times in northern Oneida County. Dissipation of clouds will be temporary, because high clouds will then spread in and thicken late tonight ahead of our next system. Lows will be in the upper 20s-lower 30s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 300 pm update... Main concerns in the short term remain focused on the next low pressure system expected to bring a mix of rain and/or snow early Friday morning...and then quickly change to rain through the rest of the day before shifting back to a mix of rain and snow later Friday night...then turning mostly to lake effect snow showers west and north on Saturday. A fairly potent low pressure system will impact the NY/PA area and most of the Northeast on Friday as an upper wave drops in across the Upper Midwest and a surface low intensifies and ejects newd across the Appalachian mtns into the ern Great Lakes. As the low approaches early Friday morning the precipitation shield will be battling a wedge of drier air to the north associated with a stubborn area of high pressure. This will delay the onset of precip Friday morning...a few hours later than previously thought. One challenge Friday morning will be the precipitation type. There will likely be a shallow layer of colder air in place...with weak warm air advection aloft from the approaching warm front. The shallow near-sfc cold layer will likely be around or just above freezing...and potentially be conducive for a short period of snow, mainly in the higher terrain locations of the Allegheny plateau and the Catskills. However, the warm air should quickly mix in throughout the column and allow any lingering snow to change to all rain before noon. Strong dynamics aloft and a decent supply of moisture from the south should lead to persistent steady rain through most of the day over much of the region. The surface low will break into two distinct features during the day with the ern portion more in line with the warmer/more moist air mass. The nwrn feature will get entrained further to the nw into the cold air mass associated with the upper low. This pattern will likely put most of the higher amounts of rain across ne PA and into the Catskills of central NY. Could see around an inch of rain in this area...with a half inch or less further to the nw. Southwest winds will be rather gusty through the day...and temperatures will only reach into the upper 30s and lower 40s. Should be a rather raw day Friday. Friday night the system lifts further to the ne as the upper low closes off over the central/ern Great Lakes and the colder and drier air starts to move in. The upper low catches up to the surface lows...which phase back with each other over nrn Maine. The low level winds will initially be more westerly on Saturday, which when combined with cold air...850mb temps around -7 to -9 C...advecting in will trigger rain and snow showers downwind and east of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Surface temperatures should take most of the night to cool enough to get all snow...but by Saturday morning, thermal profiles should be favorable for all snow in most locations. Sfc dewpoints in the teens and lower 20s should prove positive for snow, even with temperatures in the upper 30s. Winds will be quite strong during the day...out of the west around 20 to 30 mph...with gusts 30 to 40 mph possible. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 300 pm update... The low level winds will veer more to the w/nw later Saturday and especially Sat night. This will set the stage for a persistent/cold nwly flow pattern which may allow for accumulating snow over portions of central NY. At this time it doesn't appear that the residence time of the snow will be sufficient for significant snow, but if the pattern slows down, there could be Advisory level snow amounts sw of Lake Ontario into Sunday. High pressure builds ewd across the nrn Mid Atlantic region and drier air slowly moves in during the later part of Sunday...which will act to shift the snow to the north and eventually bring it to an end. Most of the area will see a brief quiet period later Sunday into early Monday...but don't get too comfortable with the dry weather because there is yet another large area of low pressure expected to move into the region Monday night through Tuesday. At this time there are still quite a number of differences between the deterministic models, with the latest ECMWF the warmer solution...producing mostly rain for our area. The GFS and CMC place the track of the low further east...which would be a colder solution leading to more snow for our area. Will need to watch this system closely as it evolves. Temperatures later this weekend will be fairly cool...with highs only in the mid to upper 30s and overnight lows in the mid to upper 20s. Temps rebound back into the upper 30s and lower 40s into early next week. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions are expected for this forecast period. MVFR clouds might slide into KRME early Thursday morning, but it's possible the ceilings will stay just above VFR. Winds will increase out of the west to 10 knots today and gust around 20 knots. Outlook... Thursday night...Mainly VFR. A few showers possible for KSYR and KRME in the evening. Friday...Showers with MVFR and IFR ceilings. Saturday through Sunday...AVP mainly VFR. CNY sites will have restrictions in lake effect showers. Improving to VFR Sunday. Monday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP NEAR TERM...MDP SHORT TERM...BJT LONG TERM...BJT AVIATION...DJP