892 FXUS61 KBGM 071151 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 651 AM EST Wed Nov 7 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move from the Ohio Valley today and into our region on Thursday. An area of low pressure will track northeast into the region on Friday bringing with it our next round of precipitation. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Adjusted the sky cover and temperatures slightly for the sunrise update. Also took into account radar trends across Oneida county and increased rain chances for the next couple of hours. Forecast discussion for later today below remains on track. A trough of low pressure will move east of the region today resulting in continued westerly/southwesterly winds but with more in the way of sunshine for most of the region. The exception will be across the NY thruway corridor due to lake effect moisture continuing to move inland. A few showers will be possible from time to time throughout the day in those locations. As for the winds, modeled sounding data indicates the potential for 20-30 mph gusts throughout the day. Highs temperatures should make there way into the 50's today. The forecast went slightly over statistical guidance given the modeled boundary layer temperatures. Winds will decrease tonight as high pressure gets closer but stays south of the region. Low temperatures will fall back into the mid 30's. A shift in the wind direction to more true westerly will result in any band of isolated to scattered light rain showers shifting gradually southward tonight into the Finger Lakes and Cortland areas but staying north of I-86/route 17. A NAM/RGEM blend was used for the timing and location of these showers. QPF looks fairly light and well under a tenth of an inch. A brief mix with snow is possible around sunrise Thursday as well. Thursday will be a colder day with highs in the 40's. High pressure overhead will result in another mostly sunny day away from any lake effect moisture which looks to stay confined to Oneida county based on the change in wind direction. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... 400 AM Update... Fairly quiet conditions Thursday night will be quickly followed by a guaranteed cold rain Friday, possibly briefly mixed with wet snow at higher elevations on the front end of it. Lingering lake effect sprinkles/flurries could still briefly exist along and north of the Thruway Thursday evening; otherwise passing high pressure will lead to a partly cloudy night with lows roughly around freezing. Models disagree a bit on details yet the end result is becoming certain, for high confidence in slug of precipitation developing Friday as system develops over the region. An Upper trough will dig into the Upper Midwest; and well ahead of it, moist diffluent flow aloft as well as jet support will help initiate cyclogenesis. Primary low appears likely to move up the Ohio Valley through western PA-NY while deepening, though a loose secondary low will move up the Midatlantic Coast. In between, an inverted trough or pseudo-occlusion will lift through our region Friday afternoon and evening. With plenty of deep moisture to interact, the result will be a raw rain of a half to three quarters of an inch. Orographic lift could even push some higher elevations of the Poconos-Catskills and perhaps northern Oneida County beyond three quarters of an inch to nearly a full inch. One point of uncertainty, is that rain shield moves in fast enough, thermal profiles may actually be cold enough for some wet snow on the front end of it early to midday Friday, especially at higher elevations. It would not be surprising, for example, if the high terrain of western Steuben County in NY and far western Bradford County in PA ended up with a slushy coating of wet snow Friday morning before mostly rain for the bulk of the day through evening. Temperatures Friday, will be held back from getting above upper 30s-lower 40s for most of the region because of developing clouds and precipitation as well as chilly southeasterly low level flow. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... 405 AM Update... Still looking like a much colder pattern this weekend and into early next week. Behind the system Friday, cold air advection will ensue with rain in the evening finishing as scattered rain and snow showers late overnight. After that, we are still looking at a chilly period including potential lake effect snow along and especially north of the NY Thruway Saturday, perhaps shifting somewhat further south Saturday night-Sunday. Monday through Wednesday next week, all models feature amplified patterns yet differ significantly on placement and intensity of individual waves/storms. Monday night into Tuesday in particular is showing signs of another larger system perhaps moving up the coast; but details including temperatures, precipitation types, and amounts are long from being determined. There has been considerable run-to-run variability for our weather early next week, thus low confidence in details despite high confidence in generally busy weather. Previous discussion... The pattern will become rather winter-like late this week and through the weekend with a cold front pushing through Friday night...mixing in some snow in the higher elevation Friday evening and eventually changing all precip over to snow later Friday night and Saturday morning. The upper low is expected to rotate ewd through the nrn Great Lakes into Quebec early Saturday and become stacked over the strengthening surface low...with a robust supply of cold, Arctic air pouring in from the n/nw into the ern Great Lakes area. The cold air...850mb temps around -10 to -12C...will combine with steep boundary layer lapse rates and a fairly unidirectional wind profile to produce at least of period of lake effect snow showers into central NY Saturday into Sunday. Will likely see the most favorable time for light accumulating snow Sat night and Sun morning. At this time it is still to early to say with certainty how much snow will fall. The synoptic set-up looks to be pretty good for at least several inches of snow...but the mesoscale model guidance does not go out far enough to give us a good handle on the smaller scale effects. Temperatures will be rather cold this weekend with highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s. The pattern relaxes a bit going into Monday with another surface high and weak ridging aloft building across the region. Temperatures will rebound back into the lower to mid 40s with winds becoming swly again and clouds starting to move in from the sw as we await the next low pressure system to impact the region with more rain changing to snow into the middle of the week. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Generally VFR throughout the TAF period. Some MVFR clouds could potentially move into KRME for a few hours later this morning due to lake effect moisture then again overnight tonight. Gusty winds will be the main story with westerly gusts from 20 to perhaps as high as 30 knots today. Gusts will decrease tonight with continued VFR expected. Outlook... Wednesday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR. A few showers possible for KSYR and KRME. Friday...Showers with MVFR and IFR ceilings. Saturday through Sunday...AVP mainly VFR. CNY sites will have restrictions in lake effect showers. Improving to VFR Sunday. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWG NEAR TERM...MWG SHORT TERM...MDP LONG TERM...BJT/MDP AVIATION...MWG