791 FXUS63 KILX 060535 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1135 PM CST Mon Nov 5 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 910 PM CST Mon Nov 5 2018 Rain and drizzle will continue to slowly depart to the NE the rest of the evening. Subsident air driving into the southern side of the low pressure system will keep low clouds in place the rest of the night. There is a secondary wave of energy that may brush our northern counties later tonight, with some sprinkles possible between 3am and 6am. However, the bigger story will be increasing SW to westerly winds as sunrise approaches. Momentum transfer may be limited somewhat by a more saturated lower profile, but we still expect sustained winds tomorrow of 20-25 mph, and gusts around 35 mph at times. Updates this evening were done to remove PoPs for rain in our SW counties a little earlier, and linger precip in the NE slightly longer. Overall, no major changes to the forecast. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 225 PM CST Mon Nov 5 2018 Rain shield has begun to move into the southern half of the CWA this afternoon, approaching Springfield as of 2 pm. Main surface low was located over northeast Nebraska, with lighter rain extending eastward across Iowa. High-res models try to fill in these two areas more over the next few hours, with rain widespread across the forecast area the first part of the evening. With time, most of the rain should be north of the forecast area by midnight, though a few residual showers are possible toward sunrise north of I-74. Have added isolated thunderstorms to areas east of I-39/US-51 toward mid evening, as some elevated instability will track through there as the surface occlusion passes. Winds will begin to pick up overnight as the low departs, and continuing to gust 25-35 mph through much of Tuesday. Bufkit soundings showing potential for a bit higher speeds, depending on how fast skies clear. Right now, it appears winds will remain below advisory criteria. With the push of colder air lagging behind a bit, highs should still reach well into the 50s on Tuesday. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) ISSUED AT 225 PM CST Mon Nov 5 2018 Longer term focus remains on the trend toward unseasonably cool conditions mid to late week. Only a gradual cooldown is expected mid week as a large, cold air mass oozes southward, but this will make more headway by Thursday night as a deep upper trough digs south across the Mississippi Valley. While the pattern remains progressive, repeated Arctic surges are seen in the longer range models into early next week. With this pattern, periodic clipper systems will dive into the area late this week through the weekend. Can't rule out a light dusting of snow Thursday night or Saturday night, though it doesn't appear to be widespread at this point. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1134 PM CST Mon Nov 5 2018 Rain has pushed to the NE of all the terminal sites, with just a few sprinkles lingering in our far N-NE counties. IFR clouds have begun to shift northward, with PIA and BMI having the better chances of IFR continuing until after sunrise. Still seeing a wave of energy surging across N IL later tonight, but precip from that should remain N of all TAF sites. The other main concern for aviation in the short term will be the strong westerly winds, with sustained speeds of 18-20kt and gusts to 30-32kt. Strong west winds will continue through Tuesday afternoon, then subside Tue evening. Forecast soundings point toward skies clearing from SW to NE later tomorrow morning and early afternoon. After that, VFR conditions will prevail for the remainder of the 06z TAF period. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Shimon SHORT TERM...Geelhart LONG TERM...Geelhart AVIATION...Shimon