396 FXUS62 KCHS 031102 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 702 AM EDT Sat Nov 3 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will prevail through Sunday. A coastal trough will affect the area Monday and Tuesday before a cold front sweeps through late Tuesday night. High pressure will build in Wednesday through Thursday then a cold front will move through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today: Aloft, one trough will continue lifting into New England while another moves into the Central and Southern Plains. This setup will maintain southwesterly flow aloft with surface high pressure shifting directly across the forecast area. Overall, a very quiet day is on tap with precipitable water values falling into the 0.3- 0.4 inch range. Clear skies will prevail with weak low level flow due to the slack pressure gradient as the high moves through. Expect highs in the upper 60s, which would be 5-6 degrees below normal for early November. Tonight: The surface high will become centered across the Mid Atlantic states which will allow for the development of an inland wedge pattern across Georgia and the Carolinas. The low level flow will become increasingly northeast through the night. Clear skies will prevail through most of the night, with some coastal stratocumulus development possible closer to sunrise Sunday. Lows are forecast to fall into the mid/upper 40s inland, with low/mid 50s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A longwave trough will persist over the central United States while southern stream shortwave energy moves up the southeast coast. A weak high pressure wedge will exist Sunday into Monday while a coastal trough strengthens. Moisture will gradually increase during the day Sunday as the flow strengthens off the Atlantic and eastern Gulf of Mexico. However, in-situ dry air will take awhile to overcome, so it will likely be later in the day before light rain showers make it into the area. Slightly better coverage of precipitation is expected Sunday night into Monday due to deeper moisture in place, though the wedge will be weakening so isentropic ascent will be relatively weak. A cold front will push into the area Tuesday afternoon, bringing with it scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. It looks possible that the frontal band will be sparse due to veering flow aloft yielding subsidence as the front draws closer. In general we lowered PoPs during the mid-term based on considerably less aggressive model guidance. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Dry high pressure will briefly build in Wednesday behind the cold front, then another cold front will affect the area Friday and Friday night. Precip coverage could be greater with the Friday cold front due to a more potent accompanying upper shortwave. Considerably cooler air will settle over the area next weekend. && .AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS and KSAV through 06z Sunday. Extended Aviation Outlook: Periods of flight restrictions will be possible at both terminals Sunday through Tuesday, primarily due to low ceilings, though brief vsby restrictions also possible in scattered showers. && .MARINE... Today: The strong northwest flow across the local waters will continue early this morning in the wake of the departed cold front. Then the flow will quickly weaken through the day as high pressure moves in and the pressure gradient diminishes considerably. All Small Craft Advisories will be down by the late morning. Winds will turn more northerly and eventually northeasterly by this afternoon, topping out in the 10-15 knot range. Seas will drop off and become 2-4 feet by the late afternoon. Tonight: High pressure will become positioned across the Mid Atlantic states overnight, which will result in a strengthening northeast flow. Speeds will increase into the 15-20 knot range with seas beginning to come up as well though they should remain no more than 4 feet. A coastal trough will maintain northeast winds Sunday and Sunday night though the current forecast shows winds/seas just below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Southerly flow will then occur Monday through Wednesday before another cold front sweeps through. Winds/seas will remain close to advisory criteria for much of the period. The greatest chance will be late Wednesday night into Thursday behind the cold front when a northeast gradient develops. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ374. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ350. && $$ NEAR TERM...BSH SHORT TERM...JRL LONG TERM...JRL AVIATION...BSH/JRL MARINE...BSH/JRL