168 FXUS63 KILX 011755 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1255 PM CDT Thu Nov 1 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 1054 AM CDT Thu Nov 1 2018 Deepening low pressure system over the western Ohio River Valley this morning, with wrap around precipitation still impacting much of Central Illinois. Tightening pressure gradient is also keeping the northeasterly winds up between 15 and 25 mph in the eastern and southeastern portions of the CWA. HRRR and RAP are still producing gusts in the 35-44 kts range through the afternoon in east central and southeastern ILX. It's a fairly small patch of wind maxima and low end advisory. However, given the nature of the winds being quite blustery, and the wind gusts about 20 mph higher than sustained or more...advisory is in place through the afternoon to the early evening. Minor updates for hourly trends, including a brief break in the precip in the southeastern half or so for the mid morning. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT Thu Nov 1 2018 08z/3am surface analysis shows a 1000mb low over northeast Arkansas...with rain spreading as far north as a Bloomington to Jacksonville line. With the low tracking northeastward into the Ohio River Valley today, am not expecting the rain to lift much further NW. As a result, will keep locations along/northwest of a Minonk to Macomb line cloudy and dry. Based on radar trends and 00z Nov 1 models, have focused categorical PoPs along/southeast of a Champaign to Springfield line through the entire day. Model consensus takes the low into eastern Ohio by this evening, with the rain subsequently slowly departing. Given expansive precip shield, think light rain will persist across the E/SE KILX CWA through the evening hours before coming to an end shortly after midnight. Rainfall amounts with this system will range from around one tenth of an inch along the I-55 corridor...to 1 to 2 inches along/southeast of a Danville to Shelbyville line. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT Thu Nov 1 2018 Short-wave evident on latest water vapor imagery over southern Alberta will track southeastward and reinforce the prevailing upper trough over the Midwest on Friday. This feature is expected to reach the Kansas City area by 12z Fri, then western Tennessee by 00z Sat. A weak surface low will accompany the wave: however, the low will gradually fill with time as it tracks into Illinois. Given increasing synoptic lift associated with the short wave, a few light showers will be possible across the W/SW CWA mainly Friday afternoon. Once the wave tracks further southeast, cool/dry weather will be on tap for Friday night into Saturday. The next short-wave of interest will be fast on the heels of the first: however, it will be considerably stronger and will be accompanied by a deeper surface low pressure. Latest models are in good agreement with this feature, with all solutions focusing highest PoPs Saturday night into Sunday morning. Once the wave passes, rain will come to an end from southwest to northeast across the area by late Sunday afternoon. Models are still in poor agreement with yet another wave for early next week. The operational GFS appears to be an outlier as it is much faster and tracks a surface low from Arkansas 12z Mon to north of Lake Superior by 12z Tue. Meanwhile the Ensemble GFS looks similar to the operational ECMWF...with both solutions about 12 hours slower. As a result, have opted to lower PoPs to just slight chance for Sunday night into Monday morning as central Illinois remains between the departing system and the next approaching wave. Have ramped PoPs back up to likely Monday night into Tuesday morning...followed by dry/cooler weather for the middle and end of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1255 PM CDT Thu Nov 1 2018 Most of the TAF sites in central and eastern IL can expect long periods of MVFR ceilings this afternoon northwest of an area of low pressure moving through the lower Ohio Valley. As the low shifts to the ENE by early this evening ceilings are expected to lift to VFR levels. Much of the short range guidance agrees on this scenario. Thus, the TAFs reflect this with VFR ceilings in central IL by 21z and eastern IL around 00z. West central IL, including KPIA will remain at VFR conditions with lighter winds through the TAF period. Gusty northeast winds and periods of light rain will also be a concern until early evening in central and eastern IL. The strongest wind gusts at or above 30-35 kts will be in eastern IL where the strongest pressure gradient is expected with the Ohio Valley low pressure area. The wind will settle down around the same time the ceilings start lifting...in the 21z to 00z time frame. Mostly cloudy conditions with mainly mid and high clouds around 9kft or higher can be expected overnight and into Friday morning. Could see some patchy fog in a few locations, particularly south of a KSPI-KMTO line from 09-14z. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ044>046-054>057- 061>063-066>068-071>073. && $$ UPDATE...HJS SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Barnes AVIATION...Miller