266 FXUS66 KLOX 311740 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1040 AM PDT Wed Oct 31 2018 .SYNOPSIS...31/824 AM. Fair skies will continue through the weekend. Gusty Santa Ana winds will affect the mountains of Los Angeles and Ventura County today through Thursday. Warming trend is expected through Friday, but cooler temperatures will return to the area going into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...31/924 AM. Gradients about 1mb weaker than what the NAM was indicating yesterday and winds are probably 5-10 mph weaker than expected, but still close to advisory levels and we'll likely continue to see a little increase through the late morning hours. Other than that everything looks on track today and through the end of the week. ***From previous discussion*** The gusty Santa Ana winds will combine with the warm and dry conditions to bring critical Red Flag fire weather conditions to much of LA/Ventura counties today. Gradients weaken Thu and Fri but there remains enough offshore flow to generate locally gusty 15-25 mph winds in the usual northeast favored locations. Todays cooler air will modify over the next two days and each day will be warmer than the next. Friday will be the warmest of the next 7 with max temps 8 to 12 degrees above normal. .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...31/326 AM. The inside slider that is forecast to knock the ridge back is now forecast by both the EC and GFS to be weaker and further east than the more aggressive earlier GFS solutions. Offshore flow will continue through the weekend but in a much weaker fashion. The lower hgts and weaker offshore flow will lead to a 2 to 4 degrees of cooling on Saturday. Not much changes on Sunday and neither will the max temps. Overnight lows will be on the cool side with dry air, long nights and clear skies which will allow for maximum radiation cooling. The ridge retreats a little to the west on Monday and gradients turn weakly onshore on Monday. These two items will combine for 3-6 degrees of cooling Monday. Not a whole lot of change on Tuesday. Cannot rule out a few late night low clouds with the long nights and weak offshore flow but think the inversion will have tough time forming. && .AVIATION...31/1739Z. At 1735Z, there was no marine layer detected. High confidence forecast due to a dry offshore pattern next 24-hours. VFR conds aft patchy morning haze vcnty KLAX and KLGB. Gusty NE winds will affect much of L.A. and VTU Counties through early afternoon, producing local LLWS and moderate UDDF. Locally gusty NE winds returning aft 06Z. KLAX...High confidence in the 18Z TAF with VFR conds thru the period. Light east winds at LAX until 20Z. Ocnl LLWS is possible. KBUR...High confidence in the 18Z TAF with VFR conds thru the period. Ocnl LLWS is possible through early afternoon. && .MARINE...31/934 AM. For the Outer Waters, seas are slowly dropping below 10 ft and SCA levels this morning. High confidence forecast below SCA conditions thru Fri. Then, there will be a 40% chance of SCA level NW winds Fri night thru Sun, except SCA conds likely across the northern zone Sun. For the Inner Waters north of Pt. Sal, high confidence in current forecast. Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels thru Fri, then there is a chance of SCA level winds during the afternoon and evening hours Sat and Sun. For the Inner Waters south of Pt. Conception, moderate to high confidence. Offshore Santa Ana winds for SCA levels today and possibly early Thu morning. Local gusts to 30 knots from Point Mugu to Santa Monica, and possibly through the San Pedro Channel. Short period hazardous seas expected throughout these waters today. Expect locally hazardous conditions early Thu, but just below SCA wind levels. Then, SCA conds are not expected thru Sun. && .FIRE WEATHER...31/931 AM. Moderate offshore winds will impact the region today, then remain breezy through early Sunday but weakening 5 to 10 mph each day. These winds will be focused over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, where gusts between 30 and 45 mph are expected during today's peak. Humidities will bottom out at 5 to 15 percent today, but increase 5 percent each day through Friday despite some warming each day. Borderline Red Flag conditions are expected today as a result, with widespread elevated to near critical conditions otherwise through at least Sunday. There are no plans on extending the current Red Flag Warning. This is a dangerous situation. If a fire starts, the environment is such that extreme fire behavior and growth should be expected. The public needed to use EXTREME caution with any potential ignition sources. Large fires have begun from things like discarded cigarettes, campfire, welding equipment, dragging towing chains, and weed whackers. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 40-41-44>46-53-54-88-547. (See LAXNPWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 240-241. (See LAXRFWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until 6 PM PDT this evening for zones 244>246-253-254-288-547. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 650-655-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && .HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (FRI-TUE). Elevated fire weather conditions are possible through late week. && $$ PUBLIC...MW/Rorke AVIATION...Boldt MARINE...Boldt FIRE...Kittell SYNOPSIS...Sweet weather.gov/losangeles