842 FXUS65 KABQ 240904 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 304 AM MDT Wed Oct 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... The storm system responsible for widespread soaking rains will gradually push east today. Rain will favor eastern New Mexico, tapering off by late afternoon. A few showers will linger across central areas. A drying and warming trend will get underway Thursday and continue through Saturday. A dry cold front is forecast to bring cooler temperatures to much of the state Sunday and Monday with colder and more active weather on tap for Tuesday and beyond. && .DISCUSSION... Base of upper-level trough sliding southeast through far northeast Sonora early this a.m. Rain winner so far is 1.5" 15ESE of Corona. Drier air will work into western and central NM this morning, spreading east of the central mountain chain during the afternoon. As a result, widespread rain will continue over eastern NM through around mid afternoon before tapering off while morning showers over western and central NM taper off during the morning. Patchy fog a fair bet tonight and Thursday morning in valley areas that received over a third of an inch or so. Models agree that a weak and dry short-wave trough in the northwest flow aloft moves through Thursday. This feature will result in scattered clouds and a shower or two over the far northern mountains Thursday. Dry north to northwesterly flow aloft becomes the rule through the weekend. Saturday looking like the warmest day during the next seven, ahead of a dry backdoor for Sunday. Models remain stronger with this feature, cooling off areas east of the central mountain chain by 10-15 degrees and the RGV around 5 degrees. Then things get interesting next week. The upper-level ridge axis associated with the northwest flow aloft gets forced ewd Monday as a relatively deep trough moves over the PACNW. GFS and ECWMF agree that this trough digs south/se through the Great Basin Tuesday, closing off near the Four Corners Wednesday. Then the differences in the models show up for late-day Wednesday. The GFS is more progressive, bringing the low/trough east through northern NM while the ECWMF keeps the low closed off over AZ. Main takeaway is that both models have the same general idea and offer the potential for accumulating snow not confined to the high peaks. MJO progs would agree with the farther southern storm track/digging, given the stalling of the active oscillation over the EPAC and Gulf of Mexico through the first week in November. 33 && .FIRE WEATHER... Early this morning, a widespread wetting event continues across the area as the Pacific trough moves overhead and the focus for soaking rains shifts to eastern New Mexico. Some drying/warming is forecast across western and central New Mexico today but temperatures will remain below normal. A more pronounced warming/drying trend will begin Thursday, then ramp-up significantly Saturday as an upper high shifts east across into the Desert Southwest and pressure heights increase over our area. Daytime temperatures are forecast to be above normal areawide by Saturday. Vent rates will improve over the next couple of days as stronger northwest flow prevails in the wake of the departing trough, but will trend down Saturday as the upper high shifts over the region. A stronger backdoor cold front will slide down the eastern plains Saturday night and push west to the Continental Divide Sunday, bringing cooler temperatures to the eastern half of the state. Winds will trend up early to mid next week as a the westerlies increase with the approach of an upper level trough/low from the Pacific NW. The 00Z operational runs of the ECMWF and GFS differ on the handling of the upper trough/low going into the middle of next week, with some potential for a fairly wet and relatively cold system. For now, forecast confidence is low beyond Tuesday of next week. 11 && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE Mostly VFR conditions prevail across western NM, although areas of MVFR cigs are developing and should impact KGUP shortly after midnight. Areas of rain and MVFR to IFR conditions prevail across central and eastern NM and are forecast to persist with some deterioration to LIFR. Improvement will be slow Wednesday across eastern NM. Widespread mountain obscurations will persist overnight, with some improvement by mid day Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 65 37 66 37 / 20 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 61 35 61 31 / 30 10 5 5 Cuba............................ 57 37 59 36 / 30 5 0 5 Gallup.......................... 61 34 63 31 / 10 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 59 33 62 28 / 20 5 0 0 Grants.......................... 62 37 63 30 / 20 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 60 38 62 35 / 10 10 0 0 Glenwood........................ 70 46 71 44 / 10 10 0 5 Chama........................... 52 33 54 31 / 60 20 10 10 Los Alamos...................... 53 40 58 37 / 70 5 0 5 Pecos........................... 54 38 60 37 / 90 5 0 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 51 35 55 33 / 80 20 10 20 Red River....................... 44 31 49 28 / 80 20 10 20 Angel Fire...................... 48 24 53 21 / 70 20 10 20 Taos............................ 53 33 58 28 / 60 20 10 20 Mora............................ 51 36 59 34 / 90 10 10 20 Espanola........................ 60 39 64 37 / 60 5 0 10 Santa Fe........................ 54 40 60 38 / 60 5 0 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 57 37 63 35 / 60 5 0 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 63 44 65 42 / 40 5 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 65 46 67 43 / 30 5 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 67 42 69 39 / 30 5 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 66 44 68 43 / 30 5 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 67 38 70 36 / 30 5 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 66 44 69 43 / 40 5 0 0 Socorro......................... 70 46 72 45 / 30 10 5 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 57 41 59 39 / 60 5 0 0 Tijeras......................... 59 37 63 36 / 60 5 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 61 34 65 32 / 60 5 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 54 40 61 38 / 80 5 0 10 Gran Quivira.................... 62 42 65 39 / 50 10 5 0 Carrizozo....................... 62 46 67 43 / 50 5 5 0 Ruidoso......................... 58 42 62 40 / 60 10 5 5 Capulin......................... 47 36 61 36 / 80 20 5 20 Raton........................... 50 37 64 37 / 80 10 5 20 Springer........................ 54 39 66 38 / 80 10 5 20 Las Vegas....................... 49 37 60 36 / 80 5 5 20 Clayton......................... 48 41 67 43 / 80 20 0 10 Roy............................. 48 41 64 41 / 80 10 5 20 Conchas......................... 53 45 70 45 / 80 5 0 20 Santa Rosa...................... 54 45 68 43 / 80 5 0 20 Tucumcari....................... 53 45 73 46 / 90 10 0 10 Clovis.......................... 50 45 69 46 / 100 5 0 10 Portales........................ 54 47 70 46 / 100 5 0 10 Fort Sumner..................... 54 47 69 47 / 80 5 0 20 Roswell......................... 58 50 76 49 / 70 0 0 10 Picacho......................... 59 46 70 46 / 60 5 0 5 Elk............................. 59 45 68 43 / 60 5 0 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 33