253 FXUS63 KILX 240851 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 351 AM CDT Wed Oct 24 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT Wed Oct 24 2018 1032 mb Canadian high pressure over western Lake Superior and upper MS river valley, was ridging southward into IA/IL early this morning and bringing fair skies and light to calm winds. Cool temps were in the low to mid 30s over central/se IL with Decatur and Lacon down to 29F. High pressure moving slowly over lower MI by sunset and ridging back into central IL will bring one more day with a fair amount of sunshine over central/se IL with increasing thin cirrus clouds. Highs in the mid to upper 50s with ENE winds 5-10 mph. Mid and high clouds will increase from the west during tonight as skies become mostly cloudy during overnight. Despite light winds tonight, not quite as cold tonight due to increasing clouds, with lows in the mid to upper 30s, coolest from Champaign/Urbana ne. && .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT Wed Oct 24 2018 A southern stream short wave/trof over AZ/NM and northern Mexico with moisture from remnants of hurricane Willa will track into the lower MS river valley by midday Thu. We will have mostly cloudy to overcast skies on Thu, but should stay dry through sunset Thu as light moisture/showers stay west and south of CWA. Widespread cloud cover to keep a bit cooler highs in the low to mid 50s on Thu. The mid/upper level trof to push east across IA/MO during Thu night while surface low pressure moves over southern parts of AL/GA. Models continue to spread rain showers ne over west central and southern CWA during Thu evening, and over rest of CWA during overnight Thu night into Friday. Highest pops continue se of the IL river overnight Thu night and Fri morning with likely to categorical pops. Rainfall amounts still pretty light with this system over our area, with less than a tenth inch over IL river valley and up to a quarter inch in southeast CWA. Heaviest qpf remains se/south of the Ohio river with deeper tropical moisture there. Highs Friday mostly in the lower 50s. Have 20-30% chance of lingering light rain showers east of the IL river Fri evening as upper level trof shifts east of IL. Then a bit of a lull in rain chances overnight Fri night into Sat night when just isolated light rain showers possible. A strong northern stream short wave/cutoff upper level low digs se into central IA by dawn Sunday and moves se across central/se IL during the day Sunday, likely bringing more rain showers to the area Sunday into Sunday evening. Have 20-30% chance of light rain showers east of the IL river overnight Sunday night, and in eastern IL Monday morning, then brunt of showers shifts east of IL into IN by Mon afternoon. Plenty of cloudy cover along with showers on Sunday to keep cool highs in the lower 50s and similar temps again on Monday. A few places may even struggle to reach 50F. Lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s from Friday night thru Sunday night, then cooler low to mid 30s for lows Mon night. Strong upper level trof/low shifts east of IL during Monday night into Tue, with upper level ridge moving east into the eastern plains by Tue afternoon. Dry weather expected over area Monday night thru Wed morning. Temps to gradually modify Tue and Wed as upper level ridge moves over IL and Ohio river valley. Highs in the mid 50s Tue and 55-60F on Wed/Halloween. An upper level trof over the Rockies by Halloween with some energy ejecting ne into the upper MS river valley could bring chance of rain showers to IL river valley later Wed and across area on Wed night. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018 VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 06z TAF period. Light NE winds will veer to to E/SE after 14z. Other than an increase in high/thin clouds during the day Wednesday, skies will remain mostly clear. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Barnes