005 FXUS62 KILM 231032 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 628 AM EDT Tue Oct 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure will move off the North Carolina coast tonight. Canadian high pressure will push a cold front across the coast Tuesday night. Low pressure will develop along the Gulf Coast Thursday, bringing good rain chances to the Carolinas Friday into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...Copious cirrus-level moisture streaming across the area and this may be the case for the entire period. Much of today will feature a poorly defined pressure gradient and thus light winds as the area finds itself between to areas of high pressure. A coastal trough will develop and a weak thermal ridge will as well in the low levels. The resulting localized warm advection will cause clouds to increase along the coast and could even call for some minor rain chances along far southern coastal SC. Not long after midday however low level winds swing to the NW and dry air pushes in. Any lingering low level moisture will be shunted out to sea. 850mb temps of 10-11C should allow most places to warm to 70-72 this afternoon. These values only slip by 1-2 C tonight while a NE wind pick up as the new high builds in from the NW. Low temperatures will be right near their seasonable norms; upper 40s to low 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...Ridge of high pressure will be the main forecast feature across the Carolinas Wednesday into Thursday. Breezy north winds will result in cooler highs across the region in the upper 60s to lower 70s, which is near to slightly below normal for late October. Increasing pressure gradient Thursday afternoon and evening with approaching surface low pressure systems from the south will bring breezy wind gusts up to 25 mph for some locations and chances for rain as moisture ahead of the low pushes northward. Latest model profile trends are fairly stable with a lack of instability, although a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out offshore Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 3 PM Monday...A shortwave will drop across the OH Valley from the Midwest during Thursday night into Friday. As the shortwave moves eastward low pressure will move out of the northeast Gulf of Mexico and intensify as it treks near the Carolina coast late Friday into Saturday. The low will create breezy conditions and provide the area with a very good chance of rainfall. The position of the low just off the coast will also lock in below normal temperatures. Conditions will improve during Sunday then another cold front will move across the area during Monday. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 12Z...Some VFR stratocu is expected this morning, broken at times through the morning hours. Light winds, but mainly from a westerly direction with low pressure to our north. Do not think fog will be a factor tonight, but will revisit with next set of TAFs. Extended Outlook...VFR through Thur, except for low confidence MVFR cigs at the coastal terminals Tue night as a cold front moves through. MVFR/IFR/RA/Windy Fri/Sat morn. MVFR developing Sat aftn/evng. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...2 ft seas and winds less than 10 kt all the way out to 41013. Easterly swell energy remains well south of the region and with a poorly defined gradient we are left with such minimal conditions locally. High pressure starts to build in from the NW beginning about 03Z turning winds to NW and kicking speeds up into the 10-15kt range. Seas will be slow to respond at first but will gradually start to build. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...High pressure continues with breezy north offshore winds producing between 15 and 20 kt winds with gusts approaching 25 kts starting Tuesday night and continuing Wednesday afternoon and evening. Wave heights between 3 and 5 feet, in combination with wind gusts, will create conditions that may be hazardous for small craft navigating the off shore waters during the short term period. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 PM Monday...High pressure will ridge south across the waters Thursday. NE-E flow will increase during Friday as an area of low pressure moves from the northeast Gulf of Mexico to the adjacent Carolina waters. The low will exit during Friday night into Saturday allowing the flow to back to a northwesterly direction Saturday. The flow will weaken during the afternoon Saturday as the pressure gradient subsides with the passage of the low. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be required Friday morning through Saturday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...MCK LONG TERM...SRP AVIATION...43 MARINE...MCK