236 
FXUS63 KILX 211054
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
554 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

Continued the freeze warning through 9 am CDT for Effingham, 
Jasper, Crawford, Clay, Richland and Lawrence counties. 
Temperatures at 330 am were in the lower 30s in southeast IL and 
should drop to 25-30F by sunrise, giving a widespread 1st freeze 
of this fall season for southeast IL.

1031 mb Canadian high pressure over MO and north central IL at
predawn this morning has clear skies over IL and light to calm 
winds. This has brought a widespread freeze to the CWA with the 
freezing line as far south as near highway 50 in southeast IL. 
High pressure to move over the mid MS river valley by early
afternoon and into the TN and southeast Ohio river valley this 
evening. Strong/deep subsidence with high pressure will bring
sunny skies with lighter sw winds to central IL today. Cool highs
in the lower 50s, but sunshine and lighter winds to make it feel
better. Fair skies tonight with cool lows in the mid 30s in
eastern IL, and upper 30s to near 40F west of I-57. 

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

High pressure settles into the southern Atlantic states Monday
with a weak cold front pushing se into the IL river valley Monday
afternoon. A few clouds associated with this feature but still a
mostly sunny day and near normal highs in the low to mid 60s. The
weak front passes through dry late Mon and Monday evening with
another Canadian high pressure settling into the upper MS river
valley by sunset Tue and into WI/IL Tue night. A fair amount of
sunshine again on Tue, but cooler highs Tue range from low to mid
50s northern CWA, to upper 50s to near 60F southern CWA, from 
Springfield to Terre Haute south. 

Little change to the forecast this week, as generally dry 
conditions prevail through the work week as high pressure 
dominates the region. Near normal highs in the low to mid 60s on 
Monday, then temps cool back below normal for the rest of the 
week. An initial short wave trof digging into IL Thu night and 
Friday should mostly be dry or just slight chance of light showers
as moisture is limited with this 1st short wave/trof. A strong 
upper level trof/cutoff low moving into the mid MS river valley 
Saturday into early Sunday to bring more clouds and a better 
chance of showers to the area along with keeping temperatures 
cool. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 550 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail across the central IL
airports through 12Z/7 am Monday. 1031 mb high pressure over 
central parts of MO/IL at dawn, will drift southeast and ridge 
along WV, KY/TN and AR by 00Z/7 pm today, and across the 
southeast states by dawn Monday. Deep/strong subsidence associated
with nearby high pressure will bring fair skies during next 24 
hours, with just few-scattered cirrus clouds by overnight. Light 
winds early this morning to become SW at 7-12 kts by late 
morning with few gusts 15-18 kts this afternoon. Winds veer south
to SSW 5-10 kts around sunset. Added LLWS to northern TAF sites 
of PIA and BMI overnight from 05Z-11Z as 1500-2000 ft westerly 
winds are around 40 kts. 

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for ILZ066>068-
071>073.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...07