071 
FXUS64 KBMX 210856
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
356 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...
Today and Tonight.

This AM, at the surface we have a secondary front moving through the 
state with breezy northerly winds ushering in much drier air into 
the state. Ridging will build across Eastern Conus through tonight. 
As it does so, tight pressure gradients will allow for us a sunny, 
but much cooler and breezy day to start. Winds should stay up some 
through the morning. After which, the ridge will settle in allowing 
gradients to relax some. We are expecting clear skies and lighter to 
near calm winds tonight. Cooler readings are expected for tonight, 
and the northern counties will be borderline for frost. Will hold 
off on an advisory just yet to see how the next run comes in. ARW is 
showing some cooler values but did not appear to initialize well. So 
my confidence is not high enough at this time.

08


.LONG TERM...
Monday through Sunday.

Low level ridging slides eastward to the Coastal Carolinas on 
Monday, shifting our winds more easterly to southeasterly to start 
the week. We've got generally zonal flow aloft Monday into Tuesday, 
so high temps Monday will moderate slightly, just from the lack of 
cold air advection, but likely won't warm significantly. A few weak 
shortwaves move eastward along the Gulf Coast Tuesday, but this 
shouldn't impact our weather in Central AL too much. 

A longwave trough digs into the Rockies Tuesday, amplifying a ridge 
over the Central Plains in response. This will keep our area mostly 
dry through at least mid-week with temps running slightly below 
normal, but not drastically colder than what would be expected for 
this time of year. Models continue to struggle with the evolution of 
this trough as it builds eastward through the Plains and into the 
Eastern US. Guidance suggests several shortwaves moving through the 
region ahead of the main trough axis, which will bring some chances 
for rain Thursday or Friday, but exact timing remains uncertain. 
Given the low confidence in the forecast for the end of the week, 
expect a few more changes as models come into better agreement. 

I do expect the main trough axis to shift east of our area by 
Saturday or Sunday, leading to another round of cooler temperatures. 

25/Owen


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

Localized fog has developed tonight, ahead of the approaching dry 
cold front. This will bring vis down to LIFR at TCL until the 
frontal passage. Elsewhere, skies are VFR. Winds are out of the 
northwest at 3-6kts. 

Behind the secondary frontal boundary, breezy northerly winds are 
expected. Expect northerly winds before sunrise areawide, with winds 
at 10-12kts through the day Sunday.

14


&&

.FIRE WEATHER... 

Much cooler and drier weather is expected today into early next 
week. The next chance for rain isn't expected until Thursday or 
Friday. There are no fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     60  36  66  43  69 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Anniston    61  39  66  46  70 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Birmingham  61  40  67  48  70 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Tuscaloosa  63  38  69  47  71 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Calera      62  39  67  48  70 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Auburn      62  42  67  51  70 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Montgomery  65  41  71  51  72 /   0   0   0   0  10 
Troy        65  41  70  51  72 /   0   0   0   0  10 

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None. 

&&

$$