723 FXUS64 KBMX 171730 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1230 PM CDT Wed Oct 17 2018 .UPDATE... For 18Z Aviation. && .SHORT TERM... Today and Tonight. The cold front is now south of the area and we are beginning to see the rain shift southward. Still quite a bit of time before the rain ends across the north and central sections by early afternoon. Based on the consensus of models and ongoing activity shifted the best chances of rain this morning between I-20 and I-85. As dry air enters the area from the north we will begin to see less coverage by late morning. Most activity will be done before sunset, but skies will remain cloudy through Midnight before some clearing can take place. Highs today will be in the 60s north to low 80s south. Lows will be in the mid 40s north to mid 50s south. 16 .LONG TERM... Thursday through Wednesday. The cold front has pushed out of our area by the time we reach Thursday morning. High pressure builds in through the Midwest with upper level ridging aloft. As the center of the high pressure slides eastward through the Ohio River Valley Thursday into Friday, expect winds to shift from northerly to easterly. Overall, temperatures for the end of the week remain mild with rain-free conditions. Another cold front moves through the Central Plains Friday afternoon. A pre-frontal shortwave trough moves through the Mid-MS and TN River Valleys late Friday into early Saturday morning. This will act to increase lift during the overnight hours, especially northwest of I-59 corridor, so I'll keep rain chances higher (60- 70%) into early Saturday morning. Frontal passage should take place during the day Saturday as the cold front speeds up and catches up to the pre-frontal shortwave boundary. The front will out of Central AL by the evening, so expect rain chances to clear out Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure once again builds in across the region as the upper level trough pushes through the East Coast. Cold air advection is well in place by Sunday morning, with high temps dropping into the low 40s in the north and near 50 for the southern counties. Sunday's highs will likely remain 5-10 degrees below normal due to the tight pressure gradient keeping the cool northerly to northeasterly winds advecting the cooler air mass into the area. By Sunday night, the pressure gradient weakens as the center of the high pressure at 850mb is over Northern AL. The synoptic scale subsidence associated with the high pressure will lead to mostly clear skies overnight into Monday morning, which combined with the calmer winds will allow for effective radiational cooling, and our coolest temperatures of the season so far. The work-week will start with lows in the low to mid 40s area-wide with some locations in the northern counties dropping slightly below 40 degrees. The ridge shifts to our east by Monday afternoon, allowing more southerly flow to moderate our diurnal temperatures Monday afternoon through Wednesday. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF Discussion. Dry air continues to filter into the state following yesterday and last night's frontal passage. The rain has just about diminished, except for maybe some light drizzle or sprinkles, and ceilings have risen to VFR for most terminals. However, MVFR may continue for a couple more hours at MGM and TOI. Winds will remain northerly at 5-10 kts through the period. 19 && .FIRE WEATHER... Rain chances will increase today as a front slowly moves through the region. Cooler readings return by mid week with a rain break for late Wednesday into Thursday. However, rain chances return again for late Friday into the weekend as another frontal system moves into the area. No fire weather concerns are expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 48 71 51 71 57 / 0 0 0 10 60 Anniston 50 74 53 73 59 / 0 0 0 10 50 Birmingham 51 72 56 74 60 / 0 0 0 10 50 Tuscaloosa 51 73 56 78 60 / 0 0 0 10 50 Calera 51 73 55 74 60 / 0 0 0 10 40 Auburn 55 74 56 70 62 / 0 0 0 10 30 Montgomery 56 78 60 78 65 / 0 0 0 10 30 Troy 56 79 59 78 64 / 0 0 0 10 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$