034 FXUS64 KMEG 142328 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 628 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018 .DISCUSSION... Updated for 00Z Aviation Discussion. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 342 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018/ DISCUSSION... Another wet and cloudy day across the Mid-South. A stationary warm front currently bisects the forecast area pretty much along Interstate 40. North of the front temperatures are generally in the low to mid 60s, with 70s to as high as the middle 80s over portions of north Mississippi. Latest surface analysis places an area of low pressure just to the southwest of Memphis with a trailing cold front through southeast Arkansas. Another polar front was analyzed from Chicago southwest into northwest Arkansas and back into northern Texas. Latest water vapor loop shows southwest flow over the Lower Mississippi Valley with a shortwave moving across southeastern Oklahoma right now. Short term...tonight through Wednesday... Wet and turning much cooler through this period. The subtropical moisture that is evident across the southern half of the forecast area will push east tomorrow morning as a polar front pushes through the entire area through Monday night. Generally another 1 to 2 inches of rainfall can be expected across the entire area. Haven't seen much in the way of thunder today, but do believe that the approaching front could kick off some convection in addition to the heavy rainfall. Temperatures can be expected to fall throughout the day on Monday as strong cold air advection takes place behind the front. Occasional gusty winds will accompany the frontal passage, so it will feel even cooler. Another shortwave is expected to rotate through southwest flow on Tuesday. This will keep a decent chance of showers in the forecast for areas along and south of the I-40 corridor. Temperatures will generally remain nearly steady in the 50s on Tuesday. A reinforcing dry front will push through into the Mid-South during the day on Wednesday. This will finally help clear skies and allow some warming into the lower 60s during the day. Long term...Thursday into next weekend... A 1033 mb high pressure center is expected to settle over the Ohio River Valley by Thursday morning. Depending on the exact location of the high, some frost may be possible, especially across northwest Tennessee where temperatures may fall into the mid to upper 30s. It's still a little too early to advertise in the HWO, as confidence is still borderline. Upper level split flow will transition to northwest flow and help push another cold front through the Mid-South next weekend. The last of the 70s may be upon us today. AC3 && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFs Stationary front to the south of MEM and MKL but north of TUP will be the focus for increasing showers and a few thunderstorms this period...with activity mainly along and to the north. Not confident that thunderstorm coverage will warrant more than a VCTS at MEM and MKL overnight. Current conditions of MVFR and VFR are expected to worsen down to IFR and LIFR...with rain coverage increasing. Improvement may be seen at MEM after 16/00z. Light winds becoming north at 9-13kts with frequent gusts near 20kts developing as well. JAB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$