198 FXUS63 KDLH 141202 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 702 AM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 249 AM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018 An area of low pressure was located over the northern portion of Lake Superior at 07Z/2am, with its cold front just departing the eastern edge of the Wisconsin forecast area. Behind this front, high pressure was covering the rest of the area. A large swath of clouds covered the region ahead of a potent closed upper low that was dropping through western Manitoba. The high pressure will prevail for most of the morning while waiting for the closed low to drop into the northern Red River Valley by afternoon. Meanwhile, pieces of embedded shortwave energy are lifting northeast ahead of the low and moving over the southeast corner of the Wisconsin zones. Model differences in handling of this energy and whether or not any QPF is generated. Used a blend to place some low chance pops over the eastern edge of the Wisconsin forecast area. Thermal profiles suggest mainly rain, but cannot rule out some light snow mixing in at times. By late in the afternoon, the closed low reaches the northwest corner of the region. Plenty of upper support to wring out some snow showers. Moisture is limited with precipitable waters less than one quarter of an inch, resulting in trace amounts. Max temps will be in the 30s, with a few lower 40s in northwest Wisconsin and along the St. Croix River Valley. The closed low moves across northeast Minnesota tonight. Snow showers will percolate across the area, and mix with rain along the shores of Lake Superior. Up to one inch of snow is possible over a portion of Koochiching County. This is in good agreement with the HREF/GEFS ensembles. Lighter amounts elsewhere in the evening. As the low moves into Western Lake Superior overnight, cold air advection will combine with a west northwest wind to generate some lake effect snow showers along the Bayfield peninsula, into northern Ashland County. Amounts will be around one half inch due to the lack of time with a favorable wind/fetch. Minimum temps in the 20s. The closed low departs on Monday as an open, positively tilted long wave trof follows. An elongated area of vorticity embedded with the trof will be enough to warrant some pops in the vicinity of the trof. Additional lake effect snow showers are possible from Bayfield to northern Iron counties in the morning. A favorable wind direction with cold air advection will lead to up to one inch of accumulation. The wind turns west in the afternoon ending the lake effect. The upper trof departs allowing for some brief ridging to move across the area in the afternoon. Max temps similar to Sunday. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 249 AM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018 The Northland will be under northwest flow through much of the period with high temperatures much below normal to start with warmer temperatures arriving Thursday. Chances for significant precipitation are low through the period. A shortwave will be moving through the area Monday night into Tuesday with low chances for light snow or rain over far northern Minnesota. As the trough departs, low level winds will become northwest and may lead to light lake effect rain/snow showers along portions of the South Shore Tuesday night and Wednesday with dry conditions elsewhere. Low level flow too far west of north will limit chances/accumulation. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the upper thirties to middle forties, 10 to around 15 degrees below normal. A low level ridge will pass east of the area Wednesday evening with increasing warm air advection occurring. Thursday is still on track to be the warmest day of the week with gusty southwest winds boosting highs into the mid fifties to around sixty. A cold front will move through the region Thursday night with an upper trough arriving on Friday. The front will lower highs to the upper forties to mid fifties on Friday and there will be a chance for light rain over parts of northwest Wisconsin. Colder air will continue to move in Friday night into Saturday with the upper trough still over/near the Northland. There may be some light rain/snow showers during that time and highs Saturday should remain in the forties. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 702 AM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018 A couple of troughs of low pressure will affect the Northland. One was over Wisconsin this morning and an area of light snow or rain will lift into northern Wisconsin through the day, affecting KHYR. A period of MVFR conditions will be possible as that moves through. A potent upper low was over southern Manitoba this morning and is forecast to move south and east across northern Minnesota tonight to western Lake Superior by Monday morning. There will be a chance for snow showers, possibly mixed with rain this afternoon and early evening. Some of the snow showers could reduce the visibility to less than a mile for short periods of time later this afternoon and more so tonight. Far northern Minnesota will have the best chance at seeing snow showers. Ceilings will lower for most areas to MVFR, mainly tonight, although some MVFR ceilings will also be possible this morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 37 26 39 31 / 10 20 10 0 INL 33 25 36 32 / 10 30 20 10 BRD 38 27 41 32 / 0 10 0 0 HYR 39 27 40 31 / 20 10 10 0 ASX 41 28 41 33 / 20 30 20 0 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ121- 140>148. && $$ SHORT TERM...GSF LONG TERM...Melde AVIATION...Melde