601 FXUS61 KBGM 091819 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 219 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will slowly move further offshore through Wednesday leading to a couple more of warm and dry days. Our next cold frontal passage will be on Thursday with another round of rainfall. General clearing and much cooler weather is expected late this week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Very little change is expected over the next 36 hours. Deep southwesterly flow will maintain unusually warm temperatures and high levels of humidity in the area. Clouds will vary both longitudinally, and with time, as upslope flow works on the moisture fields across NEPA and the south central NY counties, while downslope tends to erode cloudiness across much of the Finger Lakes region. Overcast conditions will tend to dominate late at night and the early morning with variable amounts of clearing late in the day and evening. Patchy fog and low clouds may shroud some of the elevated highways in NEPA. Tropical moisture from "Michael" will surge north later Wednesday and begin interacting with a strong cold front bearing down on the region from the Great Lakes. Timing is still somewhat uncertain, but model consensus is high enough to at least bring high PoP rain into the picture very late in this forecast period. Some models suggest intensifying the upper jet to the north, with hints of a possible PRE setting up a band of heavy rainfall across NEPA and SENY for Thursday. Watch this closely. Muggy nights in the 60s are expected, with tomorrows highs similar to today...low-mid 80s west and mid-70s south-east. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 415 AM Update... Another round of rainfall is expected during the short term period, associated with a fairly moist cold front that will sweep through the region. It will still be quite warm Wednesday night into Thursday, with humid south-southwest flow advecting in precipitable water values to around 2 inches, or around 4 standard deviations above normal. Models have not changed in that respect, however, there are a couple of other noteworthy shifts. Models have trended more progressive with the front Thursday, with a bigger gap between its passage and the appearance of right entrance region jet support. There is thus also less time for tropical moisture well in advance of the remnants of Michael, to make it all the way up here before the front gets through. Instability appears limited to a few hundred J/kg, with abundant cloud cover as well. Locally heavy rainfall still cannot be ruled out, and we also still maintain a chance of thunder to accompany the showers, but overall the prospects for flooding have gone down a bit. We will continue to monitor closely, but for now rainfall totals are expected to average from around a half inch northwest, to roughly an inch or so southeast. Rain will quickly diminish northwest to southeast late Thursday afternoon through evening, with the quick frontal passage. Until then, warm and humid conditions will continue. Lows of lower to mid 60s Wednesday night will roughly match the dewpoints, followed by highs of lower 70s Thursday. Wednesday night lows will be near record high minimums, but with frontal passage we will probably actually establish the daily lows at 1159 PM in the evening thus preventing breaking of those records. Strong cold air advection Thursday night will send temperatures down to mid 40s-lower 50s by dawn Friday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 415 AM Update... Forecast was adjusted towards latest multi-model blend with little change to prior numbers overall. Long story short is it will feel a lot more like Fall. Previous discussion... Cool weather will settle in Friday and Saturday with highs in the lower 50s, and overnight lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s. A persistent cool nw wind off Lake Ontario will allow for plenty of lake effect clouds, and even a few lake effect rain showers Friday through Saturday. It will really start to feel like fall this weekend. High pressure shifts to the east on Sunday, but the next system begins to move in quickly on the back side of the ridge. Temperatures on Sunday may be a few degrees warmer than Fri/Sat, but you likely won't feel the difference with continued cloudy skies and areas of light rain overspreading the area west to east. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The pattern changes very little during the next 24 hours and will be influenced by above normal moisture and warmth on a deep southwesterly flow. Expecting BKN-OVC ceilings across CNY/NEPA today to relax a bit this evening, followed by increasing MVFR overcast, with local IFR late tonight and early Wednesday. Mixyness in the boundary layer tempered fog formation last night and expect the same tonight, so main concern will be ceilings during the morning push. Improvement to VFR ceilings again expected after 15Z Wednesday. Outlook... Wednesday night...Rain developing with MVFR-IFR restrictions. Thursday...IFR with heavy rain south. MVFR with showers north. Thunderstorms possible. Thursday night through Saturday...Improving conditions Thursday night then VFR with the exception of a few lake effect rain showers which may cause brief restrictions to MVFR. Sunday...VFR. && .CLIMATE... Some record low maximum temperatures are likely to occur the next couple of mornings. This morning the 9th, the record low mins were 59 at Binghamton, 64 at Syracuse and 68 at Avoca. On the 10th, Binghamton will likely be warmer than the the previous value of 56. On the 11th, all three sites are currently forecasted to surpass the previous record low maximum temperatures. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAB NEAR TERM...JAB SHORT TERM...BJT/MDP LONG TERM...BJT/MDP AVIATION...JAB CLIMATE...MWG