426 FXUS61 KBGM 091415 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1015 AM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will slowly move further offshore through Wednesday leading to a couple more of warm and dry days. Our next cold frontal passage will be on Thursday with another round of rainfall. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 1015 AM Update...Quiet weather day just dealing with cloud trends and temperatures. Satellite imagery shows low cloud decks a little thinner than yesterday, thus there should be more sunshine across CNY today and a few more breaks in the overcast for NEPA. Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm with 80s throughout the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier, but only low 70s to the east. Previous discussion... Today: High pressure will continue moving slowly further offshore from the Mid-Atlantic coastline with a frontal boundary well to our northwest. Southerly winds will continue to send warmth and moisture northward into the region. Fog and low clouds this morning will be slow to burn off as a result through the morning. However, more in the way of sunshine is expected this afternoon. The high pressure system will keep the day precipitation free. Some model discrepancies are present with the temperatures, largely dependent on how fast the clouds burn off. The ECMWF MOS gives many areas a shot to get well into the 80's with the MAV and MET several degrees cooler. This forecast reflects a middle ground with highs pushing 80 in several spots. Tonight: High pressure will still result in more southerly flow. Winds will decrease overnight allowing the potential for patchy fog again after midnight. Lows will only fall into the 60's given the warm southerly flow. With the next frontal boundary still well west of our region, a dry night is expected. Wednesday: Our next frontal boundary will draw closer to the region with tropical moisture streaming northward into the area. A few scattered showers will move into the area by late in the afternoon ahead of the front. Highs will once again get into the upper 70's and low 80's thanks to the southerly flow. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 415 AM Update... Another round of rainfall is expected during the short term period, associated with a fairly moist cold front that will sweep through the region. It will still be quite warm Wednesday night into Thursday, with humid south-southwest flow advecting in precipitable water values to around 2 inches, or around 4 standard deviations above normal. Models have not changed in that respect, however, there are a couple of other noteworthy shifts. Models have trended more progressive with the front Thursday, with a bigger gap between its passage and the appearance of right entrance region jet support. There is thus also less time for tropical moisture well in advance of the remnants of Michael, to make it all the way up here before the front gets through. Instability appears limited to a few hundred J/kg, with abundant cloud cover as well. Locally heavy rainfall still cannot be ruled out, and we also still maintain a chance of thunder to accompany the showers, but overall the prospects for flooding have gone down a bit. We will continue to monitor closely, but for now rainfall totals are expected to average from around a half inch northwest, to roughly an inch or so southeast. Rain will quickly diminish northwest to southeast late Thursday afternoon through evening, with the quick frontal passage. Until then, warm and humid conditions will continue. Lows of lower to mid 60s Wednesday night will roughly match the dewpoints, followed by highs of lower 70s Thursday. Wednesday night lows will be near record high minimums, but with frontal passage we will probably actually establish the daily lows at 1159 PM in the evening thus preventing breaking of those records. Strong cold air advection Thursday night will send temperatures down to mid 40s-lower 50s by dawn Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 415 AM Update... Forecast was adjusted towards latest multi-model blend with little change to prior numbers overall. Long story short is it will feel a lot more like Fall. Previous discussion... Cool weather will settle in Friday and Saturday with highs in the lower 50s, and overnight lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s. A persistent cool nw wind off Lake Ontario will allow for plenty of lake effect clouds, and even a few lake effect rain showers Friday through Saturday. It will really start to feel like fall this weekend. High pressure shifts to the east on Sunday, but the next system begins to move in quickly on the back side of the ridge. Temperatures on Sunday may be a few degrees warmer than Fri/Sat, but you likely won't feel the difference with continued cloudy skies and areas of light rain overspreading the area west to east. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Some of the MVFR and IFR stratus which has been present at all sites but KSYR has begin to break some with the south- southwesterly winds. Ceilings will be slow to lift through the remainder of the morning to VFR but should break by early afternoon. VFR conditions from late afternoon through the evening. Winds should be from 5-10 knots from the south with a few gusts up to 15 knots this afternoon. Another round of low MVFR/IFR stratus and fog is likely overnight tonight. Quite a bit of uncertainty is present on which one it will be and how low the ceilings and visibilities get. Outlook... Tuesday night through Wednesday night... MVFR and IFR restrictions possible from fog around sunrise Wednesday. Southerly winds around 10 knots or less. Thursday...MVFR and IFR with showers. A thunderstorm can not be ruled out. Thursday night through Saturday...Improving conditions Thursday night then VFR with the exception of a few lake effect rain showers which may cause brief restrictions to MVFR. && .CLIMATE... Some record low maximum temperatures are likely to occur the next couple of mornings. This morning the 9th, the record low mins were 59 at Binghamton, 64 at Syracuse and 68 at Avoca. On the 10th, Binghamton will likely be warmer than the the previous value of 56. On the 11th, all three sites are currently forecasted to surpass the previous record low maximum temperatures. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAB/MWG NEAR TERM...JAB/MWG SHORT TERM...MDP LONG TERM...DJP/MDP AVIATION...MWG CLIMATE...MWG