725 FXUS62 KRAH 091046 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 645 AM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An area of high pressure will extend into our area through tonight. Hurricane Michael is forecast to move northward out of the Gulf of Mexico midweek, then quickly move northeast through the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic states Wednesday and Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 345 AM Tuesday... Today: The mid/upper ridge will remain parked off the southern mid- Atlantic coast today, while surface high pressure located off the mid-Atlantic coast extends southwestward back into our area. This will allow for increasing low level east-southeasterly flow across central NC today, with increasing low level moisture. This should result in another day of above normal temps, but not quite has hot as yesterday. Expect high temps will generally be in the lower to mid 80s, with some readings across the southeast approaching the upper 80s. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will again be possible today as well. Tonight: Most of the convection today is expected to decrease in coverage and intensity after sunset, with dry conditions generally expected by late evening again. Although, a few lingering showers will be possible as east-southeasterly flow strengthens further as Hurricane Michael approaches the panhandle of FL. Low temps are expected to be in the upper 60s to near 70. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 405 AM Tuesday... Hurricane Michael is forecast to move northward into the FL Panhandle/Gulf Coast States on Wednesday. This should allow deep southerly flow to increase across our area, with PW's increasing into the 2-2.5 inch range on Wednesday. Several bands of heavy showers and storms are expected on Wednesday as tropical moisture streams into the area. This should help keep high temps generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with a few mid 80s across the east. A brief lull is expected in the more widespread activity on Wednesday night, before chances for precip will increase again with the approach of TC Micheal. Low temps Wednesday night are expected to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s, very warm for this time of year. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 400 AM Tuesday... What is left of hurricane Michael is scheduled to arrive in central NC on Thursday and latest NHC forecast as well as intensity guidance bring the system through as a tropical storm with heavy rains coming into play for central NC. Currently, the guidance is fairly tightly packed for a day 3 forecast and most models have the track going across central NC on Thursday. The problem is, only slight differences to the east or west in the track will have significant impacts on the forecast. At the moment, the official forecasted track does go across the southern third of our forecast area. That situation seems fairly likely but there are several forecast models showing a track slightly north and west of the official track which is hedged closer to the ECMWF model which keeps the track of the low much closer to the coast. On the current official forecast track we expect much of the tornado threat to be confined to the coast and extreme southeastern portions of the forecast area. The stronger winds would also remain to the southeast of the area. Rainfall however, could be a different story. As an upper trough and a cold front move in from the west, the storm will interact with these features and this will help it to become extra tropical which would shift the heaviest rainfall from along and east of the track to west of the track which would put the heaviest amounts across our forecast area. At this time, these amounts appear to be in the 4-5 inch range and would primarily occur along and slightly east of US1. This would likely cause some river flooding issues depending on which basins it falls in. If a more westerly track occurs, this band of intense rainfall would shift to the north and west, closer to the I-85 corridor and possibly into portions of the Triad. This would also bring more of the tornado threat in play for southeastern counties. This trend is one that needs to be followed over the next couple of days. In either case, the wind threat will be minimal with sustained winds of 25-30 kts with gusts to tropical storm force. Another high confidence element to this storm is that its forward speed will be increasing as the storm moves northeast, and therefore is not expected to spend much time at all in the state with it coming in Thursday morning and out of the area by early Friday morning. As the storm exits on Friday, the cold front moves through and we get our first taste of fall temperatures coming in for the weekend and into early next week. Highs will be generally in the 70s with lows in the low to mid 50s and maybe even some upper 40s across the NW Piedmont. Dry weather is expected through the weekend before a another frontal system approaches for early next week. && .AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 645 AM Tuesday... 24 hour TAF period: MVFR/IFR cigs are finally beginning to develop across northern portions of the area this morning, along with some patchy fog. Where any sub-VFR cigs develop this morning (best chance at KGSO/KINT), expect we should see conditions slowly improve to VFR by early afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered tropical showers are expected to return from SE to NW by this afternoon/evening allowing for periodic dips below VFR through sunset this evening. Another round of sub-VFR conditions are expected tonight, with more wide spread MVFR/IFR conditions, with some LIFR conditions possible. Looking ahead: Hurricane Michael is expected to track NE across the Southeast states late Wed through Thu night/Fri morning, and this will bring a heightened risk of sub-VFR conditions in the form of tropical rain showers, along with windy conditions. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BSD NEAR TERM...BSD SHORT TERM...BSD LONG TERM...Ellis AVIATION...BSD/JJM