042 FXUS64 KBMX 090915 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 415 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .SHORT TERM... Today through Wednesday Night. We will have a little bit of weather to deal with today before really focusing on Hurricane Michael. Southeasterly flow over the area will once bring in moisture from the Gulf and Atlantic as high pressure now is well to our northeast. For tonight we begin to get into the northern edge of subsidence from the Michael as it churns northward. Generally only an isolated shower is possible in the far northeast before sunrise. Highs today will be in the 80s to a few near 90 degrees. Lows will be a little bit more mild with readings in the 60s to mid 70s. As we get into the morning hours of Wednesday we will begin to see the outer bands of Michael work toward the southeast. Look for widespread rains and occasional thunderstorm to work into the region by 9 am and then slide/spread north and east. Did go ahead and include a flash flood watch for the southeast during the day Wednesday into Thursday morning for heavy rains associated with Michael. Will be adding in Pike and Barbour into the tropical storm watch. Still not 100 percent confident but there is a chance for winds to barely reach criteria for 3 to 6 hours. Needless to say it will be wt will be windy in the southeast, but do we reach 39 mph sustained or not is the question. There will be high gusts and possibly even greater than 50 mph. As Michael is exiting the southeast, a cold front will be entering the west. Rainfall is expected to be along the front, but will be encountering some drier air and subsidence on the western side of Michael. Will still go likely rain chances with the front but activity will be scattered. 16 .LONG TERM... Thursday through Tuesday. By early Thursday morning, Michael is expected to be pushing through Central and Southern Georgia, weakening as it moves further inland. There should be a fairly tight precipitation gradient from west to east right along the Georgia/Alabama state line Thursday morning, so I've kept mention for a chance of rain showers generally east of I- 65, though this should quickly diminish as we get closer to the afternoon as Michael continues to push eastward away from Central AL. The cold front that swings through the region and pushes Michael eastward will slide through through Central AL through the day Thursday. This will lead to drier, northerly flow for Friday and Saturday, along with much cooler temperatures as we head into the weekend. Another cold front will push through the MS River Valley Sunday night through Monday as a trough digs into the Central Plains. The associated surface low is well north of the area (in the Great Lakes region), but enough convergence is present to support shower development along the front. Confidence in the trough evolution and timing is low at this time, so have gone with chance PoPs Monday into Tuesday due to the uncertainties. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF Discussion. Mostly clear skies across the area tonight, with a plume of high clouds just to our east associated with Gulf moisture advecting northward. MVFR cigs will spread across portions of the area due to moist easterly low level flow. Expect these clouds to slowly lift Tuesday morning, but remain at MVFR heights. Another afternoon isolated to scattered showers are possible Tuesday. With uncertainty in coverage, will hold off for now before adding SHRA to the forecast. Winds will remain out of the east to southeast through the period. Through tonight, winds will be 5-8kts, increasing by mid day to around 12kts with gusts to 20kt through the afternoon. 14 && .FIRE WEATHER... An increase in moisture and rain chances through Thursday as we monitor a tropical system that will impact the eastern two-thirds of the state. A cold front may bring some heavier rain to the western third. Best rain chances will be Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Fog should not be an issue as we are too windy for the fog development through Thursday. There could be some river fog issues over the weekend, so be mindful of that. No fire weather concerns are expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 83 71 81 68 77 / 20 20 60 60 40 Anniston 84 71 81 69 80 / 20 20 70 60 50 Birmingham 86 73 84 70 77 / 20 20 50 60 30 Tuscaloosa 88 74 87 69 79 / 20 40 70 60 20 Calera 85 72 84 69 77 / 20 20 50 50 30 Auburn 83 73 76 71 80 / 40 40 100 90 50 Montgomery 87 74 82 72 82 / 40 30 90 60 30 Troy 85 73 77 70 82 / 40 30 100 80 40 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night for the following counties: Barbour...Bullock...Pike... Russell. Tropical Storm Watch for the following counties: Barbour...Pike. && $$