593 
FXUS64 KMEG 070114
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
814 PM CDT Sat Oct 6 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Skies are clear across the forecast area this evening with
temperatures in the 70s. Another quiet weather evening is in store
with no rain and temperatures remaining above normal. Forecast
looks fine and no update is needed.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 322 PM CDT Sat Oct 6 2018/ 

At 3 PM CDT... A broad upper ridge currently sits along the North
Carolina coast. The Mid-South, on the western edge of the ridge,
is currently experiencing temperatures this afternoon near 90
degrees. A decent cumulus field covers the region, but radar
trends have remained dry so far this afternoon, which is expected
to continue.

Warm and dry conditions will continue for Sunday, with
temperatures again near 90 degrees. The upper ridge gradually
moves to the east, which will reduce its influence on the local
area. This will allow for the chance for a few afternoon showers
and thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon, primarily across eastern
Arkansas. By Monday the ridge meanders back west a bit, with less
chances for afternoon convection as a result. Again temperatures
will be near 90 on Monday afternoon. 

An amplifying trough axis swings into the Plains on Tuesday as the
upper ridge finally moves off the Atlantic seaboard, allowing for
a greater coverage of afternoon convection across the local area.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler by a few degrees on Tuesday
as the upper ridge finally departs the region. 

As a mid-latitude cyclone deepens across the Mid-West, an
associated cold front will press east on Wednesday, bringing the
greatest chance for showers and thunderstorms of the forecast
period. The front slows as it moves through the region, keeping
clouds and showers possible into Thursday. The good news is that
temperatures will be primarily in the 70s on Wednesday and
Thursday, much more seasonable than recent temperatures. 

Dry conditions will return for late in the week. Models hint at a
reinforcing front passing by next weekend, which could further 
lower temperatures and escort the heavily anticipated arrival of 
fall into the Mid-South.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF Set

VFR conditions will continue this cycle period. Winds light
overnight, from the South 4-7kt during the day. A few showers may
approach JBR tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$