759 FXUS61 KBGM 021040 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 640 AM EDT Tue Oct 2 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move across the region today producing showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms may be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall. High pressure builds in late tonight into Wednesday before another cold front slides through on Thursday with more showers and storms possible. Unseasonably warm and humid conditions expected into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Active weather expected today across central NY and northeast PA...with showers and scattered thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall. A warm front draped w-e across the region early this morning will lift to the north later this afternoon and allow much of the area to become situated within the warm sector adjacent to an approaching low pressure system in the srn Great Lakes. A lead upper level short wave...currently near srn Ontario/Lake Erie...will eject ewd across NY this morning and produce the initial band of showers and thunderstorms. This area of convection should move through fairly quickly...with the bulk of the heavy rain mostly likely across the Finger Lakes into the Mohawk Valley area. There is expected to be a relative lull by late morning early afternoon...behind the first wave, and ahead of the second round of convection, which will be associated with the main upper trough/surface cold front. Additional showers and storms are expected to roll through during the late afternoon/early evening time frame today. This is the period of most concern when there is the potential for thunderstorms to produce damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall. The convection should die down through the late evening and be east of the area by midnight. The primary concern with this system today is the potential for heavy rain leading to flash flooding. A high moisture content air mass will move in later today with PWATs 1.5-1.75 inches. Deep saturation through the column, combined with modest forcing aloft ahead of a 500mb s/w, within a weakly coupled jet and an area of divergence aloft should provide the primary ingredients for heavy rain. The initial band of showers this morning should be mainly focused across the Finger Lakes into the srn Adirondacks with around a half inch of rain. May see a quarter of an inch or less to the south. The setup for the afternoon round of convection will be more organized. Deep layer shear increases with the incoming s/w along with a narrow corridor of stronger winds associated with a 30-40kt swly LLJ. The air mass should also be able to destabilize through the afternoon...with ML CAPE values climbing to around 1000 J/kg...and relatively steep low and mid level lapse rates. Downdraft CAPE 500-1000 J/kg within this type of wind regime with strong westerlies aloft, and the potential for dry air intrusion on the back side of the convection leading to cold-pool downdrafts will enhance the potential for locally strong damaging wind gusts. The storms in the afternoon/evening will also continue to be situated within the rich air mass, with tall skinny CAPE profiles, which indicate the increased potential for heavy rain. The antecedent soil moisture is still very high, especially along the srn tier in NY and into ne PA. Thunderstorms may be capable of producing rainfall rates around a half to 3/4 of an inch in 1 hour...which would likely cause issues in these sensitive areas especially if the front lays out east-west across the region and the same areas get hit for several hours. At this time the area expected to receive the most rainfall today is across the Finger Lakes and Mohawk Valley region...where as much as 1 to 1.5 inches is possible. Lesser amts are expected to the south...around a half an inch...but as much as 1 inch locally is not out of the question through the entire day. The line of showers and storms is expected to diminish in intensity and move east out of the area by late this evening and be mostly clear of the region by midnight. High pressure will build in behind the departing system and allow for quiet weather late tonight through the day Wednesday. May be some fog early Wed morning, but the rest of the day should be pleasant...with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the 60s and lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Quiet weather and seasonable temperatures are forecast for Wednesday night before a storm system moving toward our region drags moisture back into NY and PA for Thursday. A cold front will move from west-to-east across the forecast area Thursday afternoon, potentially setting off another round of thunderstorms. As usual the NAM forecasts a great deal more CAPE than the GFS, but the lack of strong forcing will likely mute severe potential regardless. The Thursday storm may be able to tap moisture from the tropical remnants moving into the Ohio Valley. If so, the potential for heavy rain in thunderstorms will increase. We will need to keep a close eye on this storm system. Dry air will quickly enter the region Thursday night. Quiet weather is forecast with temperatures in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will control our weather on Friday as upper level ridging brings seasonable temperatures into NY and PA. Temperatures will be in the 60s. Stronger ridging is forecast by Saturday, pushing temperatures in the lake plain into the 70s. Moisture associated with a storm over Wisconsin will bring a slight chance for a shower to our area. By Sunday, the warm air will spread eastward across the entire forecast area. Temperatures will climb into the 70s over NY and PA with a slight chance for a shower. Overall, temperatures will be above normal through the long term period. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Warm front continues to lift north this morning with the first round of showers and storms moving into wrn NY as of 630 am this morning. Ceilings continue to improve to fuel alternate/MVFR conditions. Rain showers will begin to move in around or just after 13Z. The first round of will last a couple hours before the precip tapers off for only a brief period of time. During this relative lull, still think fog may develop. So, kept with a tempo group to account for this chance. The next round of showers and potentially a few storms again moves in during the afternoon along a cold front. Ceilings rise with substantial mixing along the front. Have added mention of TS after 17Z. Winds shift to the W/NW behind the front as the rain comes to an end after 03Z. Ceilings will lower...especially at KITH, KELM KBGM and KRME...with the possibility of reduced vsbys in fog as well after 03Z. May see IFR conditions after 06Z with calm or light north/nw winds. Outlook... Wednesday...Mainly VFR, perhaps lingering low ceilings around sunrise with fog. Thursday...Restrictions likely in showers/thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Friday...VFR with ceilings forming and lowering. Friday night and Saturday: Restrictions with some showers around. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJT NEAR TERM...BJT SHORT TERM...DJP LONG TERM...DJP AVIATION...BJT/DJN