960 FXUS61 KBGM 300003 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 803 PM EDT Sat Sep 29 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Sunday will be dry with increasing clouds and seasonal temperatures. The next chance for showers occurs late Sunday night into Monday along a warm front. A cold front sweeps through Tuesday and Tuesday night with more widespread showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 8 pm update... Only subtle tweaks to temperature and sky cover grids overnight, with the overall forecast in very good shape. Satellite imagery shows thicker mid-level clouds advancing eastward from southern Ontario and northern OH early this evening. We expect these clouds to overspread much of the forecast area between midnight and 3 am, from west to east. In the meantime, skies should remain generally clear. As temperatures drop this evening due to radiational cooling, patchy valley fog could form in the twin tier river valleys towards midnight. However, thickening clouds in the pre-dawn period should limit the overall extent/density of any such fog. Lows by daybreak will range mostly in the 40s. Previous discussion... Tonight...Surface high pressure in the vicinity will make for a mainly clear evening followed by increasing clouds late tonight due to an approaching warm frontal boundary. Patchy valley fog is expected across the twin tiers but dry airmass and increasing cloud cover late will limit the extent of the fog. Overnight lows will range in the upper 30s in the coldest areas of the western Catskills to mid 40s in the Wyoming valley. Sunday...Zonal upper level flow will continue with no significant short waves. A slow moving warm frontal boundary will bring a mid deck across much of the western and northern forecast area by midday with partly sunny skies elsewhere. Most models keep area dry through the daylight hours as forcing is weak along with plenty of low level dry air. During the afternoon just included slight chance POPs for showers in northern Oneida County. Highs will range in the upper 50s to lower 60s across central New York and in the mid to upper 60s in northeast Pennsylvania. Sunday night...Isentropic lift along the warm frontal boundary enhances although models all have the frontal position in a different location but the overall trend is for increasing POPs through the overnight period from north to south. By daybreak will advertise likely POPs in northern Oneida County, chance across the Finger Lakes to western Catskills and slight chance in the southern tier. Lows will range from 50 to 55. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A warm front will extend across our northern counties on Monday. Meanwhile, a wave will pass overhead during the late morning or early afternoon hours, increasing the chance for rain showers over the northern half of our forecast area. Temperatures will generally be in the 60s. The warm front will fluctuate southward again Monday night. As a result, we will keep a chance for showers in the forecast over Upstate New York. The storm system will pass across NY on Tuesday. The models generate a modest amount of CAPE across the entire region, hence the chance for thunderstorms amid likely showers. Given the track of the cyclone, it is expected the warm sector will be rather cloudy and unsettled. This may mute instability somewhat. Showers will linger Tuesday night as the cyclone slowly passes to our east. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will return on Wednesday coincident with ridging in the upper atmosphere. Skies will be mainly clear with temperatures rising into the upper-60s and lower-70s. A warm front will spread increasing high clouds across the region Wednesday night. Temperatures will fall into the upper- 50s. A low pressure system rapidly strengthening over Canada will move through Northern Ontario on Thursday, dragging a cold front across NY and PA during the afternoon. Temperatures will climb into the middle-70s ahead of the front, then showers will spread across the forecast area. A few thunderstorms are possible as instability increases during the day. With the low pressure system so far into Canada, forcing across NY and PA will be minimal. Wouldn't be surprised to see POPs underperform. The presence of the cold front lingering over Northeastern NY on Friday could cause isolated early day showers. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 00z update... For the most part, VFR/unrestricted conditions are foreseen throughout the valid TAF period. The one exception is KELM, where a brief period of valley fog could bring a small window for IFR conditions. Light surface winds overnight, will become S-SE at 5-8 kt Sunday. Outlook... Sunday night...Restrictions possible at KSYR/KRME in light showers. Monday...VFR south and central terminals. Showers and associated restrictions possible toward KSYR and KRME. Tuesday...Showers and isolated t'storms...associated restrictions possible. Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Thursday...Restrictions likely is showers. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RRM NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM SHORT TERM...DJP LONG TERM...DJP AVIATION...MLJ/RRM