553 FXUS64 KLUB 280516 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1216 AM CDT Fri Sep 28 2018 .AVIATION... VFR conditions in place at all three TAF sites but, another round of IFR/LIFR ceilings is expected to develop early this morning. Timing of onset remains uncertain. Will continue to watch observations through the night to refine and update the time window. Clouds are expected to linger through mid-morning today followed by VFR conditions. This evening winds will shift to the N-NE as a cold front moves across the region. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 324 PM CDT Thu Sep 27 2018/ DISCUSSION... Relatively cool weakly cyclonically curved flow aloft remains in wake of yesterday's upper trough passage. Heights aloft somewhat suppressed but dry airmass aloft is dominant. Not the case so much near the surface where relatively thick low clouds have been very slow to disperse for some areas on the Caprock, though finally now clearing. Low level south-southwest component will increase overnight and erode somewhat the depth of moisture near the ground, but we expect enough shallow moisture to give another opportunity for patchy fog and low clouds mainly on the Caprock late tonight and early Friday. Solutions not in total agreement, but we are giving lean to the RAP/NAM12 camp and indicating at least some stratus late tonight and early Friday. Otherwise, Friday will see improved southwest flow near the surface and warm well into the 80s. Then, a weakening cold front will steer southward into our northern zones as early as Friday afternoon, and this may lop a few degrees of highs especially northwest counties. Front will either traverse entire area Friday night or weaken and stall over our area - unclear - then lift north Saturday with still a generally warm day expected. The front also will provide a low chance of thunder to the southeast Panhandle mainly just north of our area late Friday, and likely spread low clouds into the area Friday night into early Saturday. Upper ridging will move overhead late Saturday and Sunday with very nice conditions overall expected. And as the ridge nudges east early in the week, southwest flow aloft will increase Monday probably spreading mid and high level moisture off eastern Pacific tropical system Rosa into our neighborhood. The remnants of Rosa are expected to lift rapidly north-northeast into eastern Arizona and western New Mexico early Tuesday, and might validate low thunder mention late Tuesday favoring our western zones. But bigger news will be an approaching large upper low solutions in better agreement edging into the southwest. This will pull sub-tropical moisture northeast favoring our western areas mid week with thunder chances best western counties. And better rain chances may set in late in the week with further approach of this upper low, arrival of a Canadian cold front, and yet another eastern Pacific tropical system gathering north towards Baja. Stay tuned as we hone in on these events in the days ahead. RMcQueen && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 99/99/28