119 FXUS63 KDDC 171716 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1216 PM CDT Mon Sep 17 2018 ...updated aviation section... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon Sep 17 2018 Aside from some wind, it will be a relatively quiet and warm start to the week for Southwest Kansas, with the next chance for widespread rain arriving on Thursday. Upper level ridging continues today over Western Kansas, with lee cyclogenesis continuing to develop in eastern Colorado. The increased surface pressure gradient will bring afternoon wind gusting to 20-30 mph. A mid-level disturbance will move southeast across Kansas, producing some scatted cumulus toward Central Kansas. Short-fuse models have been placing a few showers near Medicine Lodge this afternoon associated with this feature. Went ahead and placed slight chance pops for a few hours this afternoon. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, reaching into the lower 90s. Tonight will be mostly clear with temperatures in the lower 60s toward the Colorado border, to upper 60s toward central Kansas. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon Sep 17 2018 Very little chance in surface airmass through Wednesday. Temperatures will continue to reach into the lower 90s, with wind becoming gusty each afternoon as the low in eastern Colorado deepens. Upper level ridging continues on Tuesday, and begins to amplify as high pressure becomes centered over the Southern Plains. An upper level trough enters the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday, which will help push the upper level high over Southern Plains to the east, on Wednesday, into the Mississippi Valley. This will allow tropical moisture to stream into the Central Plains. The upper trough will continue to move east and lift north into the upper Midwest Thursday night. The aforementioned surface low developing in Eastern Colorado will push into Southwest Kansas as a cold front on Thursday and become stationary along roughly an Oklahoma Panhandle to Great Lakes line. The boundary will interact with the increased moisture, bringing our next rain chance. The GFS is a bit more aggressive with surface convergence ahead of the front on Thursday, combined with upper level ascent associated with a jet, producing some possible thunderstorms before the front early Thursday afternoon. However, the ECMWF is less aggressive with severe parameters. Regardless, both the GFS and ECMWF have decent agreement on widespread rain coming to Southwest Kansas on Thursday into Friday. Both models show the boundary stalling out through Saturday, but the GFS pushes it further south, and the ECMWF more north, which would affect location of further rain chances. At this time, the best chances for rain on Saturday look to be toward Central Kansas. Temperatures for the end of the week and into the weekend should remain below normal. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Mon Sep 17 2018 An area of weak low pressure persists over southeast Colorado creating an east-west surface pressure gradient across southwest Kansas. This will keep southelry winds, gusting as high as 30 knots in the afternoon Today, and decoupling at sunset. Clear sky is expected through the TAF period, keeping the terminals under VFR conditions as well as free of other weather related aviation impacts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 91 67 92 70 / 0 0 0 0 GCK 92 66 93 66 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 93 64 93 66 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 92 66 94 69 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 91 68 92 70 / 0 0 0 0 P28 92 71 93 72 / 20 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Reynolds LONG TERM...Reynolds AVIATION...Russell