526 FXUS61 KPHI 152145 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 545 PM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered in New England this afternoon will continue to influence our weather into Sunday. The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Florence are forecast to lift across the northeastern states on Monday and Tuesday. High pressure is expected to build down from the northwest and north on Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front is anticipated to approach from the northwest on Friday and it should pass through on region on Friday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... High pressure remains centered to our north and east while Florence continues to sit and spin over the Carolinas. This has resulted in an E/NE flow persisting. While the overall trend has been for drier air to work into the CWA, a persistent deck of stratocumulus has lingered over portions of SE PA, but should continue to diminish with the loss of diurnal heating. High clouds associated with the far northern periphery of Florence are expected to persist over Delmarva through at least the evening. Otherwise, the trend will be for mostly clear skies through the evening. As we have seen the last few nights, patchy fog or a low stratus deck may try to form late tonight, primarily across E Central PA and NW NJ, especially in the river valleys. Limiting factors though will be continuing advection of slightly drier air from the E/NE and winds likely remaining a bit too strong in the boundary layer for widespread fog. It will be cooler with lows generally in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Relatively benign weather looks to continue for Sunday as high pressure to the NE remains dominant. Most of Eastern PA and NJ should see a mainly sunny to partly cloudy day while clouds will continue to hold tougher over the Delmarva. In fact by late day deep layer moisture will be increasing over this area as the the flow begins to shift to the E/SE advecting in more moisture from Florence. This will lead to continuing chances for some showers in the Delmarva and perhaps a few thunderstorms as there will be a bit more instability. Expect highs generally in the upper 70s to low 80s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Surface high pressure is expected to be centered well off Cape Cod on Sunday night. As the air mass loses its influence over our weather, we are anticipating an increase in cloud cover. Also, there may be isolated showers in Delaware and northeastern Maryland. Low pressure, the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Florence, is forecast to move from the middle Ohio River Valley on Monday morning to northeastern Pennsylvania on Tuesday morning. The feature is then expected to move off the New England coast on Tuesday night. The widespread heavy rain potential during the period from Monday into Tuesday should be mainly from the upper Ohio River Valley across New York State and into New England. However, we continue to anticipate locally heavy rain in our region from late Monday into Tuesday. Conditions remain rather saturated, so there is the possibility of localized flooding of roads and areas of poor drainage. Also, we could experience some minor flooding along small streams and creeks. As the system begins to pass off the New England coast, it should pull a cold front through our region on Tuesday evening. The showers are forecast to come to an end at that time. High pressure is expected to build down from the northwest and north for Wednesday and Thursday, bringing a period of dry weather. Humidity levels should be noticeably lower than those we have been experiencing. Dew point readings are forecast to drop into the 50s in much of our region. A cold front is expected to approach from the northwest on Friday and it should pass through our region on Friday night. We may see an increase in cloud cover on Friday, especially in the afternoon, with a chance of showers from late Friday into Friday night. Dry weather should return for Saturday in the wake of the front. Daytime temperatures are forecast to be fairly typical for mid to late September during the period from Monday through Saturday. However, nighttime readings should remain above normal. && .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. This afternoon...A broken deck of strato cu is affecting most sites and will continue to bring MVFR cigs to most sites through at least mid afternoon. The exceptions are KMIV/KACY where VFR looks to prevail. E/NE winds will generally remain around 5-10 knots or less. Tonight...Strato cu diminishes this evening with mainly VFR. Overnight, there could be some low stratus or mist that tries to form but low confidence on this so we kept this out of the TAFs for this issuance. E/NE winds generally around 5 knots or less. Sunday...Mainly VFR with winds remaining light...generally E/NE at 5- 10 knots or less. Outlook... Sunday night...VFR with some locations lowering to MVFR ceilings and visibility values. East wind 4 to 8 knots. Monday...Varying from VFR to MVFR with an increasing chance of showers. East to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Monday night...MVFR and IFR conditions with showers and isolated thunder. The rain may be heavy at times. Southeast to south wind 5 to 10 knots. Tuesday...MVFR and IFR conditions with showers and isolated thunder. The rain may be heavy at times. Southwest to west wind 5 to 10 knots. Tuesday night...Conditions improving to VFR with showers ending. Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Wednesday night...Mainly VFR. North to northeast wind 6 knots or less. Thursday...Mainly VFR. East to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. && .MARINE... Buoy observations for the coastal waters of central and northern NJ show seas below 5 feet and continuing to diminish. Therefore, have cancelled the small craft advisory for these locations. For the Delaware and southern New Jersey waters, seas around 5 feet continue, so will keep the SCA going for now, though seas should gradually diminish overnight. For Delaware Bay, the conditions are expected to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria through tonight and Sunday. OUTLOOK... Sunday night and Monday...No marine headlines are anticipated. Monday night through Tuesday evening...Waves on our ocean waters may build around 5 feet due to a southerly wind increasing around 15 to 20 knots. Late Tuesday night through Thursday...No marine headlines are anticipated. Rip Currents... A High Risk of dangerous rip currents continues into this evening, due to persistent onshore flow, swell energy and waves mostly in the 4-6 foot range. At least a moderate risk of rip currents is expected on Sunday, as medium-to-long period easterly swell persists. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Spotty minor tidal flooding remains possible around the times of high tide tonight and again on Sunday night along the upper eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay. The most susceptible area is from Kent Island down to the Choptank River. The minor flooding should not be widespread or impactful enough to warrant an advisory. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NJZ014- 024>026. DE...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for DEZ004. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ452>455. && $$ Synopsis...Iovino Near Term...Fitzsimmons/Johnson Short Term...Fitzsimmons Long Term...Iovino Aviation...Fitzsimmons/Iovino Marine...Fitzsimmons/Iovino/Johnson Tides/Coastal Flooding...