197 
FXUS63 KEAX 150440
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1140 PM CDT Fri Sep 14 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 251 PM CDT FRI SEP 14 2018

Broad upper level ridging will remain in place from the southern 
Plains through the Ohio Valley through the weekend and into most of 
next week. This will keep the weather in the forecast area generally 
quiet with above normal temperatures. There are some spotty chances 
for showers and storms embedded within this pattern though. For 
Saturday, very isolated showers are possible in eastern KS and 
western MO. There are some CAM models that show this and even the 
GFS shows some light, spotty QPF. Will keep the forecast dry for now 
as coverage looks low and confidence isn't all that great at this 
time. For Monday, with surface and low level winds becoming more 
southerly and open to the Gulf Coast, low level moisture will be
on the increase. While there is still weak forcing, the added 
moisture could produce some showers and storms in southeastern KS 
and southwestern MO. By the middle of next week, models show a 
frontal boundary encroaching on northern MO. This may lead to 
precipitation spilling over into the northern portions of the 
forecast area. Really though, it's not until Thursday night into 
Friday when it looks like the front begins to move into the area 
that there is a chance for anything more widespread. And there is 
enough variability in the timing of the front to keep PoPs in the 
chance category at this time. 

Normal high temperatures for this time of year start around 80
degrees and drop to the upper 70s by the end of next week. With 
the upper ridge in place and persistent low level flow from the 
southeast to south, temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above 
normal through what looks like at least Wednesday and possibly 
into Thursday. Increasing low level moisture advection will also 
tend to keep temperatures warmer overnight. Normal lows this time 
of year are in the upper 50s but we'll likely see lows in the 
upper 60s through the weekend and the lower 70s next week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT FRI SEP 14 2018

There is a marginal chance of patchy fog tonight into early
Saturday morning, particularly at KSTJ, though overall confidence
remains low at this time. A scattered to broken layer of stratus
will develop across the area by the afternoon hours. Models
continue to hint at spotty showers by the afternoon hours, thus
may need to account for this in subsequent issuances should this
trend continue.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Welsh