034 
FXUS64 KLUB 140917
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
417 AM CDT Fri Sep 14 2018

.DISCUSSION...
One more quiet weather day in store before we start to see
increasing clouds from the southeast as moisture levels start to
rise aloft. This is due to the remnants of the tropical depression
located off the southeast Texas coast moving onshore and pushing
across South Texas. The depression will weaken into an inverted
trough with the bulk of the energy remaining south of the 
forecast area Saturday night into Sunday morning. However, it will
move close enough to the region to increase precipitable water 
values above normal and approaching 1.5 inches across the area. 
Locally heavy rainfall will be a possibility with the best rain 
chances during the day Saturday when the inverted trough axis is 
over the area. Chances for precipitation will continue into Sunday
with the better chances across the southeastern half of the 
forecast area where deeper moisture will be.

We will dry out for the first part of next week as the ridge
slides back over the area but even then the models differ on how
strong it will be. After a cool weekend due to the cloud cover and
precipitation, temperatures will warm back up to above normal
Monday and Tuesday before starting to gradually fall through the
end of the week as the ridge slides off to the east. Flow aloft
will gradually become more cyclonic as a trough deepens across
the western U.S. Forecast for the end of next week is a bit more
uncertain as both the GFS and ECMWF show a series of shortwaves
moving across the region starting Wednesday night. These should be
dry as little additional moisture moves into the region but rain
chances may return to the forecast by Friday. This will be due in
part to either a strong shortwave according to the GFS or a decent
cold front according to the ECMWF. Either way, did increase PoPs
Thursday into Thursday night depending on what the outcome will be
but not as high as what the model blends had.  

Jordan

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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