857 FXUS63 KILX 140534 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1234 AM CDT Fri Sep 14 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 916 PM CDT Thu Sep 13 2018 Skies are clear and will remain that way overnight with the high pressure ridge still firmly in-place through tomorrow. Dwpts are in the 60s and with light and variable winds, expecting good radiational cooling again tonight. Current forecast of overnight lows in the lower 60s still looks good. Since current forecast looks good, no update planned at this time. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT Thu Sep 13 2018 1027 mb high pressure over southern Quebec and ridging sw into central IL/MO will remain anchored in place through Friday and continue fair weather. A strong mid/upper level ridge will also continue across the central and southeast US ensure dry wx with warm days. Ample sunshine over central and eastern IL this afternoon with just few cumulus clouds west of a Macomb to Springfield line and more numerous cumulus clouds west of IL over IA/MO and over ne IN. Temps were in the low to mid 80s with dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s and fairly light winds generally less than 10 mph, except se winds around 10 mph over west central IL. Fair skies expected tonight and dry airmass should limit fog formation to near rivers/lakes late tonight but not enough coverage to mention in forecast. Lows overnight in the lower 60s, with some upper 50s ne of I-74. Friday is nearly a repeat of today with mostly sunny skies on fairly light winds. A bit warmer with highs in the mid 80s. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT Thu Sep 13 2018 The latest 12Z forecast models keep strong upper level ridge over IL through early next week and generally keep our area dry with above normal temperatures, with highs in the mid to upper 80s Sat thru Tue. Just slightly cooler highs in the low to mid 80s on Wed and Thu. Category 2 Hurricane Florence with 105 mph winds was 110 miles ESE of Wilmington, NC and tracking nw at 10 mph as of 2 pm EDT. The NHC tracks this hurricane wnw toward the southern NC coast by sunrise Friday with wind speeds around 100 mph at that time, then weakens as it moves westward across northern SC thru Sunday morning, then turns northward into the central Appalachians Monday/Monday night. This will produce very heavy rains over the mid Atlantic states thru early next week, while models continue to keep Florence rains east of IL into the middle of next week. The remnants of Florence gets closest to the Wabash river valley on Monday though most of its clouds and rains appear to stay east of IL. Models are weaker with a cold front slipping into central IL on Tue afternoon/evening and keeping our area drier Tue/Wed and also only slight cooling behind this front. Upper level ridge actually nudges back north a bit Wed/Thu which would tend to keep central/southeast IL drier/warmer while convection chances better north over MN/WI and far northern IL. GFS model appears too far south with its convection during mid week and prefer the further north ECMWF and GEM model solution. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Fri Sep 14 2018 Light winds and VFR conditions will continue across the area through this forecast period. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Auten SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...WFO ILX