237 FXUS63 KILX 122035 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 335 PM CDT Wed Sep 12 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT Wed Sep 12 2018 More clouds continued over southeast IL this afternoon while scattered cumulus clouds were also over the IL river valley mainly west of the IL river. Temps at 3 pm ranged from lower 80s across central IL and upper 70s in cloudier areas of southeast IL. 1027 mb surface high pressure over southern Quebec was ridging sw into central IL this afternoon along with upper level high pressure ridge over the eastern states and southern plains was providing the nice weather again today. The latest forecast models strengthen the upper level ridge over our area a bit more thru Thu while surface high pressure ridge stays anchored in place keeping winds over CWA fairly light. Diurnally driven cumulus clouds this afternoon diminish this evening. But models show more clouds streaming ne across areas mainly over east central and southeast IL late tonight and Thu. This will keep less of a diurnal swing in temps over this area thru Thu. Lows overnight in the upper 50s, with southeast IL near 60F. Some patchy shallow/ground fog possible near river valleys late tonight into early Thu morning. Highs Thu in the upper 70s/lower 80s, coolest over east central IL due to more clouds. && .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT Wed Sep 12 2018 Upper level ridge continues to influence central and southeast IL wx thru early next week, bringing generally dry wx and above normal temps with highs in the 80s thru Tue. Normal highs are around 80F in central IL and lower 80s in southeast IL. Category 3 Hurricane Florence packing winds of 125 mph is off the southeast Atlantic coast and moving nw at 16 mph. Its forecast by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to strengthen to 145 mph by sunrise Thu before weakening to 100-120 mph as it moves toward the SC/NC coast by sunrise Saturday, and weakening further as it moves westward across SC thru Mon morning. Models still keep remnants of Florence east of IL thru early next week with generally dry conditions continuing over the CWA thru Tue. ILX is scheduled to continue doing special 06Z and 18Z weather balloon launches thru 18Z/Fri to support the National Hurricane Center with Florence. Have only isolated convection Sunday afternoon over mainly western CWA, supported more by the GFS and GEM models with a weak upper level disturbance over the mid MS river valley. Though the ECMWF model keeps our area dry on Sunday. A cold front is progged to press se over area Tue afternoon and Tue night with only isolated convection possible over ne CWA while most of area appears to stay dry thru Tue night. Models show more convection moving into parts of IL behind the front next Wed along with cooler temperatures closer to or just below normal. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1258 PM CDT Wed Sep 12 2018 VFR conditions are expected to continue across the central IL airports through 18Z/1 pm Thu. High pressure ridge from southeast Canada and ridging into IL will stay anchored in place next 24 hours keeping fair wx. Few to scattered cumulus clouds of 4-6k ft to occur this afternoon and again by late Thu morning. Winds stay less than 10 kts, generally range from ne to se direction next 24 hours, and light and variable tonight. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...07