531 FXUS66 KOTX 310915 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 215 AM PDT Fri Aug 31 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A prolonged dry and mild weather pattern is expected for the Inland Northwest. The holiday weekend will be favorable for outdoor activities with high temperatures in the 70s to low 80s. Mild weather conditions are expected to persist through the middle of next week. There are indications that a breezy and showery weather may be possible toward the end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Saturday night: Quiet weather is in store heading into the beginning of September. Smoke from fires burning in the Cascades will continue to be an issue. Low level winds will direct smoke over the Waterville Plateau and into the northern mountains. The Spokane-Coeur d'Alene corridor will be on the southern fringe of the smoke plume. A shortwave trough of lower pressure will push across southern BC Friday night. This result in a push of wind down the Okanogan Valley for Saturday morning. Wind gusts are not expected to be much of a concern though and expected to top out between 20-25 mph. Otherwise, we will be looking at sunny to mostly sunny conditions and temperatures near average to below average with highs in the 70s. /SVH Sunday: Temperatures will likely make the subtle rebound toward average Sunday afternoon. Look for highs in the mid to upper 70s for Spokane, Sandpoint, Kellogg, Pullman and Republic. Low 80s are expected for Lewiston, Moses Lake, Wenatchee, and Omak. Forecasting where smoke may be over the weekend is tough. There is good agreement between the GFS, NAM and GFS forecast a transition to a more southerly wind at the surface up to 3000-5000 feet by Sunday afternoon with westerlies above 5000 feet. If fires burn hot with strong plumes smoke will be lofted over northeast Washington. If they smolder, winds will transport smoke across the Okanogan Highlands into Canada. Monday and Tuesday: The evening models are in good agreement that a shortwave will largely remain north of our region Monday afternoon and evening. At this time, precipitation chances appear to remain over central and southern British Columbia leaving Washington and Idaho dry. A reversal of the surface pressure gradient will likely occur Monday into Tuesday bringing north winds down the Okanogan Valley onto the Waterville Plateau. Smoke from north Cascade fires will likely be pushed into the Columbia Basin. Air quality will not be as severely impacted as it was in mid August because we aren't dealing with as many active fires in British Columbia, but the familiar smoky smell may return to portions of central and eastern Washington Mon and Tue. Wednesday and Thursday: No big warm up is expected next week. On- shore flow will continue to bring mild and relatively dry conditions to the Inland Northwest. There is evidence of a pattern change near the end of next week with a deepening trough off the coast. If that trend verifies, we may be looking at showers by next Friday or Saturday. /GKoch && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: Expect mostly clear VFR conditions for the TAFs. The only issue would be if any elevated smoke would settle to the surface toward the early morning hours toward the KGEG-KCOE corridor, although confidence on this is low. Winds at KEAT will gradually decrease toward morning, as other winds remain light. Wind will pick up by afternoon with local gusts and a cumulus deck from KGEG-KCOE to KPUW and KLWS. /rfox. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 73 50 73 49 77 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 73 49 72 48 76 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 73 48 71 46 76 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 79 54 79 53 82 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 79 45 77 43 79 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 73 46 72 43 75 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 70 47 69 45 73 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 80 48 79 46 81 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 78 55 78 54 81 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 80 49 78 49 82 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$