538 FXUS62 KMHX 270515 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 115 AM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A coastal trough will remain just offshore through tonight, before dissipating. An offshore high and inland trough pattern will return through the middle of next week. A cold front will approach from the north Thursday into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 110 AM Mon...High pressure building offshore is providing clear and mostly calm conditions around Eastern NC at this hour. Temperatures have dropped into the low 70s inland, but remain in the mid to upper 70s along the coast. Expect lows to reach to the upper 60s inland, and the low to mid 70s along the coast. Patchy fog is anticipated to develop inland over the next couple hours, and looks to be the most dense and widespread south of US 70. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... As of 240 PM Sun...High pressure offshore will continue to strengthen across the area Monday, resulting in another quiet day across ENC. An isolated shower will be possible, but expect the area to remain mostly dry. Low level thickness values and SSW flow support highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 AM Sunday...Latest guidance is generally supportive of previous forecast with building upper ridge producing hot and humid conditions with little chance of rain through Wednesday. Upper troughing and approaching surface front will result in temps a few degrees cooler and a chance of scattered showers and storms Thursday-Saturday. Monday night through Wednesday...Broad area of high pressure will strengthen over the western Atlantic and stretch westward to the southeast US. As winds become south/southwest, humidity will increase, as well as high temperatures. Highs will climb into the low 90s inland, and mid to upper 80s near the coast during this period. The increased heat and humidity will also produce some heat indices ranging from 98-102 during the mid to late afternoons. Mostly dry conditions are expected, with the exception of Wednesday afternoon, when some sea breeze showers and thunderstorms are possible. Will keep a slight chance PoP for the area generally south of US 264. Low temps will be milder, ranging from the low 70s inland, to the mid to upper 70s near the coast. Thursday through Saturday...High pressure will retreat slightly offshore, as a broad upper level trough pushes east across the northern Mid-Atlantic states. As the associated cold front approaches, scattered showers and storms will break out ahead of it, as well as along the front. 00Z GFS and ECMWF have come into better agreement with front stalling just west and north of area Friday-Saturday as it becomes parallel to upper flow. Continued chance POPs most of period with higher chances inland sections Friday and Saturday. High temps will likely be in the upper 80s to low 90s Thursday, and slightly cooler Friday and Saturday. Low temps will again be mild, ranging from the low to upper 70s across the region. && .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term /through Monday Night/... As of 110 AM Mon...VFR conditions are present for most at this hour, with KOAJ reporting MVFR/IFR fog. Expect fog to slowly become more widespread over the next few hours, and remain at mostly MVFR levels until the couple hours before sunrise, when some IFR conditions (some IFR stratus development is also expected) are possible south of US 70, including KISO and KOAJ. VFR conditions will quickly return to the area later this morning, with mostly sunny skies and light winds expected. Long Term /Monday night through Friday/... As of 345 AM Sunday...VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday with high pressure extending over the area from offshore. Sub-VFR with scattered showers/tstms will be possible Thursday. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Monday/... As of 945 PM Sunday...Winds continue S/SW at 5-10 knots with a few gusts to 15 knots at times late this evening. No major changes to the overnight forecast with S/SW winds 5-15 knots and seas generally hovering around 2 feet. Similar winds are expected Monday with seas building to 2-3 feet. No major changes made to the forecast at this update. Long Term /Monday night through Friday/... As of 345 AM Sunday...Return to offshore high/inland trough pattern will result in mainly good boating conditions through the period with SW winds 5-15 KT and seas 2-3 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CQD/SGK NEAR TERM...SGK SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...JBM AVIATION...JBM/SGK MARINE...CTC/JBM/CQD