879 
FXUS64 KCRP 261135 AAA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
635 AM CDT Sun Aug 26 2018

.DISCUSSION...

See .AVIATION discussion for 12Z TAFS

&&

.AVIATION...

Fog at KALI and KVCT will end by 14Z and tried to fit fog trend
before issuance. Will have VFR conditions with light winds and
becoming southeast then increasing with the sea-breeze passage.
Will remain VFR until late in the forecast where fog will re-form
again at KALI and KVCT. For now, will just go with MVFR BR at the
two terminals and other shifts can adjust. Winds diminish after
sunset. 

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 359 AM CDT Sun Aug 26 2018/ 

SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...

Main impact today will be the heat over the eastern areas, where 
computed heat indices over portions of Nueces and Kleberg Counties 
reach 110F for a couple of hours. Thus, will have a Heat Advisory 
for these two counties, with SPS for some of the southern and 
western areas (which is a bit tricky since the low level moisture 
will mix out more and thus heat index values will not rise to 
critical levels in some areas. 

Upper ridge weakens today and tonight, with an inverted trough 
progged to approach the area. Cap appears to be rather strong on 
Monday, so am not going to hit the rain chances too hard, especially 
since the trough still stays offshore until late in the period. For 
today, the ridge is still strong and the better moisture is still a 
day away, so am not going to go too high on rain chances (just 
modified the previous forecast a bit), with 20 POPs northeast and 10 
POPs farther south and west. Any convection is expected to end 
before evening. Slightly better rain chances on Monday, but the 
better rain chances come into the area after the short-term part of 
the forecast. Warm again today and a bit less Monday (except out 
west where moisture will be still limited). Generally went with a 
blend of bias-corrected MOS and GFS guidance. 

MARINE (Today through Monday)...

Weak to moderate southeast flow is expected for much of the day 
today and tonight, with winds becoming more south late in the night. 
Then more of a south wind on Monday. Moisture increases and thus 
shower chances increase as well but only slightly. 

LONG TERM (Monday night through Saturday)...

Based on the GFS/ECMWF deterministic and GFS ensemble mean output, 
the upper approximately E-W ridge axis will remain north of the 
CWA/MSA during the period, and allow for the advection of moisture 
across the Gulf and into the MSA/CWA. The GFS deterministic predicts 
PWAT values above normal across the ERN CWA during the period. The 
foregoing deterministic and ensemble mean output depict an upper 
trough to move WWD across the MSA/CWA Monday night/Tuesday, then 
another trough to move WWD across the region Saturday. Expect the 
combination of upper forcing and/or moisture to contribute to 
isolated/scattered convection over the MSA/ERN CWA during the 
period. Maximum Heat Index values 105-109F expected over portions of 
South Texas Tuesday through Thursday. Marine hazards are not 
anticipated (considering WaveWatch output/expected wind.)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    96  76  96  78  94  /  10  10  20  10  20 
Victoria          99  74  97  76  96  /  20  10  20  10  30 
Laredo           103  77 104  78 102  /  10   0  10   0  10 
Alice             99  74 100  76  98  /  10  10  20  10  20 
Rockport          93  80  94  82  90  /  20  20  20  20  30 
Cotulla          102  74 101  76 100  /  10   0  10  10  10 
Kingsville        98  75  98  77  97  /  10  10  20  10  20 
Navy Corpus       93  82  94  82  90  /  20  10  20  20  20 

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM CDT this afternoon 
     For the following zones: Coastal Kleberg...Coastal Nueces...
     Inland Kleberg...Inland Nueces.

GM...None.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION