887 
FXUS64 KBMX 260537
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1237 AM CDT Sun Aug 26 2018

.UPDATE...
For 06Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Through Tonight.

Weak surface ridging remains in place across the eastern third of
Conus that is curbing most convection. Even so, we have had 
sufficient diurnal heating to help generate some later cumulus
cloud development as evident on visible satellite. Thus, we have
had some very small popcorn type heat induced shower activity 
develop in the last couple of hours. While lightning has remained 
near the Gulf Coast this afternoon, a stray thunderstorm over 
Central Alabama cannot be ruled out through sunset. Shower 
activity is not expected to last long after sunset with no 
organized focus mechanism to sustain it after we lose the heat of
the day. Temperatures overnight should be a few degrees milder 
today as onshore moisture slowly returns and dew points are back 
on the rise. 

08

.LONG TERM...
Sunday through Friday. 

The center of a strong upper-level ridge will persist just to our
north on Sunday and Monday, and this should keep most of the 
forecast area dry. Closer to the Gulf Coast, convection is 
possible within zone of enhanced moisture. Some of this activity 
could sneak into our far southern counties.

Models are giving indications of slow height falls for Tuesday 
through Friday, and this could correspond with a slow increase in  
moisture and rain chances. The eastern and southern areas may be 
first in line on Tuesday and Wednesday, with better convective 
coverage areawide for Thursday and Friday.

87/Grantham


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conds expected thru the period. A deep layered ridge over the
Southeast States will produce a stable air mass across Central
Alabama. The low level pressure gradient will stay strong enough 
to produce southeast boundary layer winds around 10 knots thru 
12z, and hinder fog formation. A minimum in low level moisture 
across Alabama will keep skies mostly void of low clouds or cigs
thru 15z, with sct cumulus developing during the heating of the 
day. Rain chances too low to include at any TAF sites.

58/rose


&&

.FIRE WEATHER... 

Moisture will gradually return to the southern counties now 
through Monday but with only small rain chances as a relatively  
dry air mass remains in place elsewhere. Some patchy fog is 
possible each morning. There are no fire weather concerns at this 
time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     91  69  91  71  92 /  10   0  10  10  20 
Anniston    90  69  91  71  91 /  10   0  20  10  20 
Birmingham  91  71  92  73  92 /  10   0  20  10  20 
Tuscaloosa  93  73  93  73  94 /  10   0  20  10  10 
Calera      90  71  90  72  92 /  10   0  20  10  20 
Auburn      88  71  89  72  90 /  10   0  30  10  30 
Montgomery  91  72  92  73  93 /  10   0  30  10  30 
Troy        90  71  90  72  91 /  20  10  40  10  30 

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None. 

&&

$$