073 FXUS61 KBGM 180230 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1030 PM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will settle across the area overnight into Saturday with continued scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly from the Southern Tier and Catskills of New York, to Northeast Pennsylvania. Though an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out Sunday, high pressure will build into the region which will provide generally dry weather through Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 1030 PM Update... Remainder of Watch was dropped prior to 10pm. A few showers and even isolated thunder may occur overnight, but things overall are looking pretty quiet. However, new convection is expected to develop late morning into afternoon Saturday as the surface front drifts south into Pennsylvania. Overall rain amounts do not appear that heavy with lower precipitable water values, more scattered coverage, and cells with good movement. However, with the very wet ground unable to deal well with yet even more rainfall, isolated flash flooding still cannot be totally ruled out even though the threat will be considerably lower than it was this past afternoon. The Weather Prediction Center thus includes part of Northeast PA into Sullivan County NY in the marginal risk for excessive rainfall on Saturday. Previous discussion... As of 745 PM, Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect for some parts of the area along and east of I-81, where clusters of thunderstorms are still ongoing. However, the weak midlevel lapse rates and limited forcing is definitely being realized, with the storms struggling to achieve gusts even above 35 mph at this point. We anticipate the remainder of the Watch will be dropped well ahead of its scheduled 11 PM expiration. As for rainfall, these storms have at times produced one hour rainfall amounts in excess of a half inch, but most locations less. We hoisted a few Flood Advisories for where the most sensitive locations lined up with heavier rain as storm clusters moved through. We will still have to keep an eye on prospects for isolated flash flooding in the Poconos-Catskills zones, especially where earlier initial cells already went through and additional ones continue. Tonight: The front will move southeast into the region overnight with some additional scattered showers and a rumble of thunder. Low temperatures will be kept up in the 60's due to clouds and rain. Saturday and Saturday night: The cold front will be very slow to push southward through the region. Clouds will be fairly widespread to start the day with some breaks of sunshine in the afternoon the farther north you go. Some additional showers and thunderstorms will refire around the eastern Southern Tier-Catskills of NY and drop through Northeast PA during the afternoon hours. Highs should be in the 70's with model guidance likely a touch cool north and warm south based on the cloud cover. Overall, clearing should continue into Saturday night across most of NY with lingering showers across NE PA near the front. Lows Saturday night will be in the 60's. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Frontal boundary remains well to the south but the models show a weak inverted trough and an upper wave passing to the north so there is a small chance of a shower or storm on Sunday, especially early. During the later afternoon, ridging builds back in at the surface and aloft so anything that does develop should be isolated and short lived. Heights build slowly on Monday as a southerly flow develops at the surface. This should keep the area warm but generally dry to start the work week. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Deepening low moves rapidly from the central Great Lakes to southwest Ontario on Tuesday into early Wednesday. This will bring unstable air and scattered convection Tuesday afternoon, and then more likely Tuesday night as a cold front sweeps through. Instability will linger through Wednesday with an upper trough and northwest flow. High pressure will build in on Thursday bringing drier air and seasonable temperatures. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Clusters of showers and thunderstorms went across the terminals prior to 00Z, and still around KAVP at 00Z. However, activity will quickly wane with loss of instability. A shallow cold front will be settling north to south over the area during the course of this TAF period. Moisture trapped under the developing subsidence inversion behind the front will cause an MVFR ceiling, likely into fuel alternate required category for at least the NY terminals, late tonight. A spotty shower and perhaps even a rogue rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out. The ceilings will be tough to get rid of during the day Saturday, as winds veer northwesterly while picking up to around 5-10 knots and the subsidence inversion strengthens. Additionally, some showers are likely along and just north of the front for at least KBGM- KAVP. Thunder is possible but confidence not high enough to include in TAFs yet. Ceilings may scatter out late in the day for KSYR- KRME as drier air attempts to work in. Outlook... Saturday night through Monday...Mainly VFR, though late night- early morning valley fog possible especially KELM. Tuesday and Tuesday night...Restrictions possible in showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday... Improving to VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP/MWG NEAR TERM...MDP/MWG SHORT TERM...DGM LONG TERM...DGM AVIATION...MDP