072 FXUS62 KMHX 161914 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 314 PM EDT Thu Aug 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend over the area from well offshore through the weekend with a weak trough over the central part of the state. A cold front will move slowly through the area next Wednesday into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 230 PM Thursday...High pressure centered offshore will continue to ridge into the area tonight. Isolated to scattered showers have developed across the region this afternoon, most concentrated along the sea breeze along the Crystal Coast and far NE sections. Expect activity to diminish with loss of heating this evening but high-res models showing a weakness in the ridge with a few showers continuing near the coast so kept 20% PoPs in this area most of the overnight. Could see some patchy light fog in sheltered locations inland late but guidance keeps light winds and couple degree dewpoint depression so not anticipating any widespread fog. Lows tonight will generally be in the mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... As of 330 AM Thu...High pressure continues to ridge into the area from offshore while a robust upper trough pushes east across the Mid-west states. A moist and unstable airmass persists across eastern NC with weak shortwave energy moving through SW flow aloft bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region through the afternoon. Not anticipating storms to reach severe limits with very little shear present. Highs expected in the lower 90s inland to mid/upper 80s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 315 AM Thursday...A mean upper trough is forecast over the Eastern US through the period while low level southerly flow continues to circulate a very moist airmass across our region with PW values AOA 2". The favorable combination of forcing aloft and moisture/instability in the low levels will result in unsettled conditions late this week through the middle of the upcoming week with precipitation chances at or above normal and temperatures at or slightly below normal. Saturday through Wednesday...Shower and thunderstorm chances increase above climatological norms through most of the period as conditions become favorable for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Temps are expected to be near normal with highs inland around 90 Sat, then cooling slightly to the mid to upper 80s Sunday through mid next week. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short Term /through 18Z Friday/... As of 145 PM Thu...Similar forecast to yesterday, with predominantly VFR conditions throughout the period. A few isolated showers are starting to form along the sea breeze and may pose a brief threat to OAJ and EWN this afternoon. Skies become mostly clear overnight with fairly light winds, so some brief patchy BR or FG is possible overnight although confidence is too low to mention in TAFs. Long Term /Friday night through Monday/... As of 315 AM Thursday...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will produce sub VFR conditions at times through the period. In addition conditions will be favorable for periods of low clouds and fog early each morning. && .MARINE... Short Term /Through Friday/... As of 3 PM Thursday...High pressure remains centered offshore with a thermal trough inland and a mid-level system approaching from the NW. Gradients between these systems gradually tighten through the period bringing increasing winds and seas. Across the water north of Oregon Inlet and Albemarle Sound and rivers, expect SW winds around 5-10 kt increase to 10-15 kt tonight into Friday, then to 15-20 kt by late Friday afternoon. South of Oregon Inlet and Pamlico Sound will see SW winds around 15 kt tonight into Friday, perhaps a bit stronger at times, increase to around 20 kt by late Friday. Seas expected around 1-2 ft northern waters and 2-3 ft southern and central waters through the period building to 2-3 ft north and 2-4 ft south tonight and Friday. Long Term /Friday night through Monday/... As of 315 AM Thursday...Little change to the surface pattern of a trough of low pressure inland and high pressure offshore into early next week producing S-SW flow 10-20 kt through Sat night. Could see conditions approaching Advisory levels over the southern and central waters Fri night into Sat night as the S-SW flow increases to 20 kt with higher gusts. Seas of 2 to 4 ft late Fri will build to at least 3 to 5 ft Fri night through Sat night with the Wave Watch wave model indicating 6 ft seas possible over the outer southern and central waters. The flow is forecast to become westerly and diminish to 10-15 kt Sunday with seas subsiding to 2 to 4 ft. Monday the flow will briefly become easterly 10 kt or less over the Sounds and northern and central waters, while becoming SW 10 kt or less over the southern waters. Seas are forecast 2-4 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SK NEAR TERM...SK SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...JME AVIATION...JME/TL/MS MARINE...JME/SK