573 FXUS62 KMHX 152014 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 414 PM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend over the area from well offshore through the weekend with a weak trough over the central part of the state. A cold front will approach from the north early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 345 PM Wednesday...Isolated shower/tstm activity along sea breeze will continue to gradually spread inland next few hours and be mainly along and west of Hwy 17 during early evening hours. Left in slight chance POPs along south coast late tonight as several models still indicating some potential for activity off the water. Persistence for min temps with near 70 inland to 74-77 coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... As of 400 PM Wednesday...Generally a persistence forecast with little change in surface pattern and heights building slightly aloft. However, forecast soundings do indicate PW values increasing back to near 2 inches by mid afternoon which will be more supportive of isolated convective development, and will carry 20% POPs all zones in afternoon. Highs in lower 90s inland to 86-90 coast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 315 AM Wednesday...Looking at a more typical summer pattern into the weekend with Atlantic high pressure ridging into the area while a lee trough persists across central NC. Resulting S-SW flow will result in normal temperatures and a mainly diurnally driven convective regime across Eastern NC through the Sat though the models are still indicating drier conditions Thu with much better chances for precipitation returning Fri into early next week. Thursday...Limited convective activity is expected again Thursday as shortwave ridging aloft produces subsidence. There is enough moisture and instability though to support isolated sea breeze convection in the afternoon and will continue with slight chance PoPs. Highs inland will be in the lower 90s with upper 80s coast. Friday through Tuesday...Shower and thunderstorm chances increase to or above climatological norms for the latter half of the week into early next week as the upper ridge pushes east and is replaced by a mean mid level trough resulting in more favorable support for precipitation through the period, especially as a front tries to move into the area over the weekend into early next week. Temps expected to be near normal with highs inland around 90 Fri and Sat, then cooling slightly to the mid to upper 80s Sunday through early next week. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term /through 18Z Thursday/... As of 141 PM Wed...Little change to the previous forecast. Predominantly VFR throughout the period. A few widely scattered showers are trying to develop along the sea breeze this afternoon and may affect OAJ and EWN. An isolated thunderstorm or two is possible. Clearing skies tonight with light SW winds, so some patchy BR may develop once again by early morning. Long Term /Thursday night through Sunday/... As of 315 AM Wednesday...Primarily VFR conditions are expected outside isolated showers and storms Thu. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage to scattered Fri and scattered to numerous Sat and Sunday with brief periods of sub VFR conditions possible. Cannot rule out patchy late night/early morning fog each day producing a brief period of reduced visibilities and possibly ceilings. && .MARINE... Short Term /Through Thursday/... As of 410 PM Wednesday...Cyclical SW wind pattern will continue with speeds around 15 KT tonight diminishing to near 10 KT Thu morning, increasing to around 15 KT again Thu afternoon. Seas remaining 2-4 ft. Long Term /Thursday night through Sunday/... As of 315 AM Wednesday...Little change to the surface pattern of a trough of low pressure inland and high pressure offshore into early next week producing S-SW flow 10-20 kt through the period. Could see conditions approaching Advisory levels over the southern and central waters Fri night into Sat night as S-SW flow increases to 20 kt with higher gusts. Seas of 2 to 4 ft Thu and Fri will build to at least 3 to 5 ft Fri night through Sat night with the Wave Watch wave model indicating 6 ft seas possible over the outer waters. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM NEAR TERM...JBM SHORT TERM...JBM LONG TERM...JME AVIATION...JME/TL/MS MARINE...JME/JBM