822 
FXUS64 KOHX 111520
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1020 AM CDT Sat Aug 11 2018

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A few clouds are hanging on over the Cumberland Plateau,
otherwise, skies have cleared. As we climb towards the 80s this
morning, more CU fields will begin to develop. Latest hi-res
guidance continues to suggest isolated to scattered thunderstorms
this afternoon. Based on multiple HRRR runs, I have bumped PoPs a
little west of I-65, but once they get started, most will 
initiate on convective boundaries and models do not handle that 
at all. I can say, it's likely that once you've seen a 
thunderstorm, that will be it for your location. Best times to see
any activity will be between noon and 9 pm, and we should be done
around 9 pm as we lose the heating of the day.

Other than the slight bump in PoPs for areas west of I-65, no
changes will be made with this morning's update.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Patchy BR and low clouds will produce highly variable flight 
conditions early this morning, ranging from LIFR through MVFR at 
CKV and CSV, with a mix of VFR and MVFR at BNA and MQY. Conditions
will improve to VFR by 14z at all terminals except CSV, which 
will likely hold on to at least MVFR ceilings until 1530z. Expect
VFR conditions to prevail area wide between 16z and 09z, with
patchy fog likely to return late tonight, after 09z, and create a
mix of MVFR and IFR conditions.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Unger
AVIATION........19