369 FXUS62 KCHS 100508 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 108 AM EDT Fri Aug 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Inland low pressure will persist into next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Overnight: We continue to trim back POPs into the silent range from north to south. The land breeze will strengthen and eventually allow coastal convergence over south coastal GA to move offshore. Convective debris clouds will gradually thin and temps most areas will be fairly steady, especially where rains fell earlier on. Otherwise, only minor changes to the forecast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... The weather pattern becomes more unsettled across the Southeast. The mid-levels consist of broad high pressure centered in the southern Gulf of Mexico Friday. This high will slowly drift northward into Sunday. Meanwhile, a weak trough will be over the MS Valley Friday morning, moving eastward and passing over or just to our north Saturday morning. Then, a elongated low forms to our north Saturday and persist into Sunday. At the surface, a combination of troughing, low pressure, and a stationary front will be to our west during the short term. The interaction/development/dissipation of these surface features with the mid-levels will drive the weather each day. Though, the mesoscale details will be somewhat complex. We're generally forecasting chance POPs each afternoon. Though, Saturday and Sunday appear to be the more active days. PWATs hover around 2". Instability is more typical of mid-August values. So afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms are a good bet. Given the atmospheric setup, severe storms (especially this weekend) with damaging winds cannot be ruled out. By the details are too hard to pin down at this point and will be best defined as the forecast rolls into the near term. Both high and low temperatures will be about 2-3 degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A cutoff low over the Midwest will dip southward early next week, making its closest approach to our area Monday into Tuesday. High pressure sliding into its more climatologically normal position to our east will turn low level flow more southwesterly during this time, and low level moisture will surge, with PWats over 2 inches. This, in combination with a series of shortwaves that will pivot around the southern periphery of the afore mentioned upper low will result in continued unsettled weather for the early part of the week. By midweek, the upper low will shift towards the Northeast and ridging will reestablish locally, ushering in a warmer and drier pattern. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail through 06Z Saturday. At least isolated showers and tstms are possible this afternoon and evening along the coastal corridor. No mentions as yet due to coverage and timing concerns. Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are possible in afternoon/evening showers/thunderstorms. Otherwise, VFR. && .MARINE... Overnight: Expect mainly a southwest/west flow at or below 10-15 kt over all coastal waters between the base of low pressure trough extending along the eastern seaboard and high pressure to the south. Seas will range between 2-3 ft, highest in northern South Carolina waters and offshore Georgia waters. The weather pattern becomes more unsettled across the Southeast as low pressure persists inland. The marine side can expect mostly SW winds. Winds could become gusty near the coast with the sea breeze each afternoon. Seas will average 2-3 ft through Saturday, then 2-4 ft Sunday onward. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A Perigean Spring Tide will contribute to elevated high tide levels into early next week. The evening high tides could produce minor coastal flooding, mainly Friday into Monday. Thus, Coastal Flood Advisories are possible. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...